Call me crazy, but I was just curious to see how much the other candidates are either helping or hurting Romney and McCain...especially since it looks like the field has narrowed to these two:

How I came about the numbers....

I took the other candidates (besides Paul) and gave their votes in same percentage as the second choice they identified in exit polls either to Romney or McCain. For Thompson, since there was a significant amount to Huckabee and Giuliani, I further took those and gave them to McCain and Romney in the same percentages as second choice above. 

Starting Out (done with 76% of the vote in): McCain: 614,938 &  Romney: 530,513.
Giuliani... take the exit polls and 44% said McCain was their 2nd choice and 49% sayiing Romeny. So, add 111232 to McCain and 123872 to Romney.

Huckabee... same thing, his second choice broke 54% McCain and 32% Romney. McCain gets 123239 and Romney 73030.

Thompson... his breaks a little different, he had significant numbers go to Huckabee and Giuliani, so I did his in two rounds.  First, just the straight 2nd pick votes went 46% Romney and 21% McCain (So much for a McCain Endorsement, by the way) so McCain adds 4245 votes and Romney adds 9298. Round Two would be giving the 2nd choice Huck and Rudy votes out...in the same percentages above, giving McCain +2846 and Romney +3170.

Add that all up and you get: McCain 53.6% (an additional 241562 votes) and Romney 46.3% (an additional 209371 votes). 

Conclusion is all the other candidates are taking more votes from McCain than Romney. Just an interesting look at the numbers.  Romney is not going to gain any momentum from this race being a two-man battle. With all that has taken place so far, both the Democrats and Republicans race mirror each other: two candidates left with a third jockeying for a position in the winner's administration if the candidate who wins is "the perceived outsider." Funny how things have worked out....when everything has been so crazy.

8:02 Mitt Romney: Housing Crisis?  Is that not the line of the Democrats, everything is a crisis?

8:05 John McCain:  "I voted to make the Bush Tax Cuts Permanent Twice" but the problem is he failed to vote for them the first time!

8:07 Rudy Giuliani: Not much spunk to the answer.

No response allowed from Huckabee or Paul

8:09 McCain asked about Economics not being his strong point, with it's shift to prominence over the war, is that bad for him. "I don't know where you got that quote...." saying he was weak on economics. Good answer, listing who was has endorsed him and their strong credentials.

8:10 Huckabee asked about Romney and does he trust him as a tax cutter. Good answer, "it's whether or not the voters trust him and trust me." He didn't attack him. Good point about the economic stimulas package needs to benefit America. American Jobs, American Construction, American Concrete when he talks about making sure the economy of the US is helped. Good handle on the economy and bringing it back to Florida.    

8:12 Romney is asked about all the criticizing McCain and Rudy, "I do trust them" Russert is trying to get people to attack and so far no one is taking the bate. Romney is saying he didn't raising taxes in Massachusetts.  

Question is who will attack first? Romney! It didn't work in Iowa and New Hampshire. Is raising fees equivalent to raising taxes, Russert asks McCain of Romney: "I imagine those who had to pay them thought they paid more." Good line

8:18 Giuliani How long can a question be, Brian Williams? I think Rudy is getting the short end so far, but this gives him a chance to talk about 9/11. This is always his strongest suit.

8:21 (Russert goes in a into a diatribe about how the Republicans are bad for America) Why should America vote for a Republican. McCain: Because the Democrats are worse argument. They've already told us they are going to raise taxes, we know where they stand. McCain seems to only want to talk about pork and cutting it. While noble, is there anything else to him? He is fighting to be the conservative.

8:23 Hucakbee question about President Bush record and GOP Republicans mistakes and why we should keep electing a Republican. At the Michigan Debate, Huckabee says, he was the only one who brought up the economy and the uneasyness of the economics. He will surely get criticized for the populist message.

8:25 Romney "I'm not going to run on that record" meaning Washington. He is now trying to be anti-Washington. But he said in Michigan that Washington needs to work to help the Michigan economy.

8:27 Giuliani "I am the only one who has turned around a Government economy."

8:31 Romney Good answer on the situation with guard troops and finishing the job in Iraq. Good job of criticizing Hillary about the arrogance for taking credit for the success in Iraq.

8:33 The Democrat Candidate will say that the war was a bad idea, will you say the opposite McCain:  Getting rid of Saddam Hussein was right, but I was criticized for how I said we mishandled the initial way we handled the war. It was a good idea, not worth the failures, but worth it at the end of the day.

Giuliani "Good answer of using the polls, how Hillary followed the polls, good leadership role. I was in favor of it when 6/10 were for it and I am for it when 6/10 are against it. I like this answer.

Huckabee "I supported him when President Bush started this and I am still for him" It's easy to second guess a president, whichever one of us elected will be second guesed

Ronney "it was the right decision I supported it at the time and support now." Starts to criticize post capture of Sadaam Hussein.

BREAK... hmmm, there was some kind of audio that you couldn't make out... wish I could have, love it when the media makes a mistake like that.

Romney asks Giuliani after referencing Huckabee on China, hmmm gives him credibility: That has to be a long question just to get air time. Such a long winded question, what was the question, oh yes how do we level the playing ground in trade with China. (Every cut to Romney sure shows a weird look on his face like WHAT? Is he constipated?)

McCain asks Huckabee about the Fair Tax, how do you answer the criticism about a flat out sales tax causes more pain to the lower income paying an unfair share. The reason it's getting resonance is because people want to get rid of the IRS, cute line about Dr Phil. The pre-bate untaxes the poor, untaxes the elderly.
The underground economy will pay (cute line about non Republicans gets a laugh) Russert gets to follow up? what?

Paul to McCain (wonder if anyone will ask Paul and use him as a way to spice this up)

Huckabee with Romney about the 2nd amendment about the Brady Bill and Assault Weapon Ban and does it conflict with the 2nd amendment. I would sign the assault weapon ban. Said it was pro gun and anti gun lobby.

Giuliani to Romney (with a side swipe at McCain, as he says Whose answering this question) Where does he stand on Catastrophic fund?  Romney says he supports some kind of catastrophic fund.

QUICK NOTE: NO ONE WINS TONIGHT, BORING BORING BORING!

SECOND BREAK

Giuliani is asked about the falling polls and and losing early I am going to have the same fate as the NY Giants did last week. Funniest moment so far.

McCain is asked about his mom saying the Republican party is going to have to hold their noses to vote for him. You can tell he is not happy with this question. "I won the majority of the vote of Republicans in New Hampshire and South Carolina" yes on SC, but did he really win the Republican vote in NH? Thought that went to Romney ... I AM MR INDEPENDENT, I will put my country above my party every time.

Romney is asked about Hillary being a team with Bill if she is the nominee. Funny line about waiting to see Bill being idle in the White House. "Look I would be running against Hillary."  "She is Washington to the core" He is trying to say he speaks to all three stools to the Reagan Principles. Can you tell America how much you've spent of your personal fortune.  "I am not concerned about the voters, I am concerned about the candidates on this stage." OUCH! Russert is really trying to grill him on using his own money...move on TIM! We all know Romney is trying to buy this election. Ok, now Romney gets another question....gotta love that face time, this time on him being a Mormon. It's the Mitt Romney show!

gotta love this McCain ad

Huckabee asked about entitlement spending keeps going, we are going to have to raise taxes or cut spending. The answer is the fair tax, because it is a better funding. Russert says the Fair Tax is highly unlikely good job of "Everyone tells us what we can't do, we need to tell everyone what we can do."

Romney asked about Reagan raising taxes to save social security, Russert trying to get him to be against Reagan. I will not raise taxes, raising taxes is something you don't want to do.

T-minus 10 minutes till the debate is over, thank goodness!

Giuliani asked about his Immigration plan requiring all to learn English but why do you have a spanish campaign ad? Reality is there are people speaking spanish but the future needs to be no spanish, is that what he is saying? Russert follow up about wet foot/dry foot (no athletes foot?) and why a Cuban can can stay but a mexican cannot?  Good answer about the fact it has to do with political reasons.

Huckabee is asked Chuck Norris saying McCain is too old, does he agree or disagree?  I didn't disagree at the time because I was standing next to him, funny line, about how he can put a foot to face and knock him down. 

How many times have been told we are enforcing time limits and then it never happens!

Giuliani is asked about McCain getting the NYT endorsement and all he is asked about is the negatives. Good answer, I probably never did anything the NYT wanted me to do in the eight years and if I did, I wouldn't be a conservative Republican." Great answer, not sure he is really a conservative, but good response.

Romney is asked changes positions with the wind... funny how it is interjected into the debate. I am not going to Washington to make friends, I am going to Washington to change things. You can tell he is peaved. But the real question is, how fair is it to have a campaign (regardless of who they are) send something in during a debate? He is running on his record, someone should say running on his record too, his bad one!

McCain asked about his age I don't think I would have the support of the people I work with if that was the case. NICE NICE moment talking about Rudy and the candidates.

Huckabee asked about faith, another softball. He always hits this one out of the park. If some people have a queasy feeling, they have to do deal with it." "I don't think the have to share my faith to share my love for this country" Very strong line.

You know it is a boring debate when even Ron Paul's kook-meter doesn't rise too much.

Fred is Dead, perhaps not?

Official word came from Fred Thompson today that he is leaving the race:

“Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people.”

The next obvious question is, where do the loyal Fred Heads go from here, especially in Florida?

John McCain...Even though Fred might end up endorsing his former Senate Colleague, it is unlikely those who support him would follow his lead. When you check the stories in the blogosphere about a potential McCain/Thompson ticket, there just isn't much a stomach for that. Fred's exit, actually, hurts McCain. Remember, McCain was already in the race when Thompson got in. How would that make you feel if someone who endorsed you eight years ago battles against during this rodeo?

Rudy Giuliani...Even less likely, there isn't that much of an agreement in the core principles between Rudy and Fred.

...that leaves Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. It is widely known that Fred Thompson hurt Mike Huckabee in South Carolina and had he dropped out earlier, Huckabee would have won the Palmetto state. Finishing second has been devastating to Huckabee, because Thompson took evangelicals from a campaign whose strategy appears to revolve around them. Mitt Romney made a calculated effort to go after the "value voters," trying to be the true social conservative early in the race...and failed. In Michigan, he re-invented his campaign to focus on Economics and he won and kept his campaign from falling to the same fate as Fred.

So, what happens...consider this, perhaps they don't go anywhere! Think about it for a second, just because he has exited the race does not mean Fred Dalton Thompson is no longer on the ballot. Fred Heads are a very devoted group and began the "unofficial" campaign LONG before the "unofficial" campaign started with Fred's official announcement on The Tonight Show.

Consider this, Fred is now in his perfect spot...campaigning without having to campaign. He no longer has to the mundane tasks of going to events, making speeches, seemingly wanting the job. The Fred Heads carried the water and waged a campaign vastly more passionate than the candidate himself, what makes them have to stop now?

In an election where the GOP electorate is being even more fickle then ever, with no one filling the vacuum, this is the perfect primary season for such a scenario to take place.

Is Fred Dead, not if the Fred Heads have anything to say about it...

Update: Steven Stark picks this up but more on the historical sense and the chance there still may not be a clear front runner after Super Tuesday.

A Life Gone to the Lord To Soon... Wednesday of last week, Matthew McKee passed away. You might be asking, who is Matt McKee? If you've been to a Dallas Stars Game, you got in because of the work of Matt. You see, Matt was the Director of Ticket Operations for the Stars. More importantly,  first, he was a father of a little girl named Maddie and a husband to a wife named Tracy.  I have never met Matt, or his family, but I know that 32 is far too young to pass away.

A cannot imagine what the McKee family is going through right now, having your husband and father leave to be with the lord at such an early age. This is why I am asking for your help.  A fund has been set up, "The Matt McKee Family Trust", at Chase Bank. The account # is 2749821795. Checks should be made out to "The Matt McKee Family Trust" and can be taken to any Chase Bank location or mailed to Robert Hutson, Executive Vice President and CFO, Dallas Stars, 2601 Avenue of the Stars, Frisco, Texas 75034.

Please help if you can and God Bless.

Three Elections, Three Different Winners. Talk about lack of momentum from a win. Yes, I know, Mitt won in Wyoming but that’s like saying he pulled out Guam, be honest.

There has been a lot of talk about the “three legged or four legged stool” of the Ronald Reagan Coalition, is it dead?. Leg one, the social conservatives. Leg two, the national security/defense conservatives. Leg three, the fiscal conservatives. Leg four, perhaps, the Reagan Democrats.

Iowa showed us the importance of the “social conservatives” with the surprising win by Mike Huckabee with the help of strong evangelical vote. Moving east to New Hampshire, John McCain pulls out a victory largely because of his record of being a War Hero from Vietnam and his national security experience. Now, we have the fiscal conservatives rewarding Mitt Romney in Michigan.

A case can also be made for identity politics in all three states, with Huckabee campaigning extensively in Iowa…McCain success in New Hampshire from eight years ago…and of course, Romney’s father was Governor of Michigan and he grew up there.

I sat down with Reagan’s former White House Director of Media Relations, Merrie Spaeth, to talk about just what is a Reagan Conservative and what made him so special to America. “There are a couple of things about Reagan,” said Merrie, “he had tremendous charisma, he wasn’t arrogant. He never exuded that he came from privilege. You always felt that he was just somebody glad to be an American.”

The Reagan Coalition is not dead, it’s just fractured into many different candidates. Imagine being in a GOP laboratory and working to craft the perfect Reagan Candidate…work with me here on this one. “A Reagan Conservative,” according to Merrie “is someone with strong values on fiscal conservatism, strong national defense, strong social values but who understands that those three things fit together.

So let’s build that Reagan Conservative…starting with the social conservative. Governor Mike Huckabee is, with all due respect to Senator Thompson, the leading social conservative in the race. With a background of being a Baptist Minister, he has been solidly pro-life and pro-family. Senator Brownback tried to battle for the social-con vote, but couldn’t make it to the Iowa Caucus.

The national security candidates, that would be Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. Rudy has a tremendous record when it comes to fighting crime and being strong on national security. John McCain, who survived the Hanoi Hilton, is someone to be admired for his stance on the surge in Iraq…but both aren’t considered to be strong on the other “legs” of the stool.

The final piece, strong fiscal conservatism belongs squarely in the Romney camp. With a track record of building companies and rescuing the Olympics, Mitt Romney was not credibility gap when talking economics in Michigan. His credibility problem is with his change from pro-choice to pro-life and trying to better Ted Kennedy when it came to gay rights.

While not tied to the “three legs,” some interesting things came about in the interview with Merrie Spaeth. “I think President Reagan was a populist candidate, the establishment candidate of course would have been [President] Ford, Reagan was certainly not a Washington Insider by anybody’s [definition] he was also was not a professional politician. Establishment candidates I guess should say are almost always professional politicians, I cannot think of any that aren’t. Even though he had been Governor of California, he was one of those politicians that I like to say could have held a real job on his own.” Sounds a lot like what Governor Huckabee and Romney are saying about their slot in the race.

“Reagan Democrat is a working class person and I think we have a good chance of capturing those people,” added Spaeth. “I think that’s very important is that we remember that we, Republicans, are working class people. There’s a lot that has happened between ’80 and 2008, the off shoring trends are terribly freighting to many people and I don’t think the Republicans have done a very good job not just communicating the need for change and competitiveness but really selling it. So that’s a difference between 1980 and 2008 and to sell to working America that we’ve got to be competitive and we can be competitive … when jobs move off shore, it’s really tough for whose jobs are affective but for America to stay the most competitive power in the world it’s important that we adapt and change.” Again, sounds familiar to the tone of the Huckabee campaign.

“What Reagan was above e all things was very optimistic and I think if Republicans are optimistic and appeal to opportunity that differentias us significantly from the Democrats who think everything is bad, everybody is bad, everything is going wrong. All you have to do is look at John Edwards and his corporate greed strategy, how a multimillion dollar trial lawyer can say that with a trial face is beyond me. But I look at the CEOs of the companies we work with and for and those people are devoted to creating job, they are devoted to good working conditions for the people who work for them, they are involved in their communities. The corporate leadership that I see and work with are the genuine good guys.” Not so good for Huckabee, perhaps why you heard him on FOX News tonight talking about the CEO’s in Arkansas promoting him as a true conservative Governor.

“Reagan was also a very pragmatic governor that is he actually got things done he was someone who could actually governor as \opposed to posture. Which is why, and I am not aiming this at Senator McCain, but why I think Senators have a really really hard time getting elected because they spend years posturing. I think keeping Reagan’s accomplishments alive, I don’t’ think we should make him into a Myth and he certainly had some shortcomings, everybody does, remembering what he stood for and those are very worth goals,” says Spaeth…not so good for McCain.

So, take some of Mike Huckabee…Rudy Giuliani…John McCain…and Mitt Romney, and you have the Prefect Reagan. Problem is, you can’t put them together to form one candidate. Many where hoping Fred Thompson would be that “perfect” candidate for the GOP after its star, George Allen, lost in ’06. Fred simply hasn’t inspired the masses and has one final chance in South Carolina.
So, the social conservatives won in Iowa. The National Security conservatives won in New Hampshire. The Fiscal Conservatives won in Michigan.

Leaving Michigan, there are some interesting things to ponder. Both Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson both have fewer votes than Ron Paul. Why is this important? The Giuliani strategy has been to avoid the first states and start the ball rolling in the Sunshine State. Ironically enough, this same strategy may work out for Fred Thompson…who might not have been hurt too much for getting into the race late. Work with me here, for a moment. Fred has done nothing early, except maybe his showing in Iowa. He did campaign there, at the end, and it allowed him to finish barely ahead of McCain. If he can beat Mike Huckabee in South Carolina, get some momentum to Florida where everyone is tied, he could become the new GOP front runner…in a field where that label has much of a target on its back as the #2 team in the country did in college football. So, perhaps Rudy lined up the putt for Fred and it carries the man from Tennessee to Minneapolis this fall.

Back to the three principles of the Reagan Coalition and South Carolina, which falls into the Social Conservative category. This one should be a battle between Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. It could have been huge for McCain, had he won in Michigan, but the “big mo” is nowhere to be found this campaign season. Huck has to be hoping a win in South Carolina gives him that elusive “mo,” we’ll see.

Then it’s Super Tuesday…and all bets are off. That’s going to be one heck of an Election Night watch party. What happens on that night could shape the future of the GOP race or send us roaring down the road to a brokered convention…or make the Lone Star State the GOP Alamo.

Give Mitt Romney his due, he won in the state he grew up and his father was Governor of. Congrats.  And money went a long way in his victory...

   CNN reports "But Massachusetts governor led McCain 41 to 26 percent among voters who
   made their pick within the last month – which includes a period when Romney, and virtually
   no other GOP candidate, was advertising heavily in the state.

Call it the George Steinbrenner Strategy, just out spend your competition to win! On to South Carolina.

I've noticed something about the primaries, especially with the coverage of Michigan....is this the ultimate earmark tour or what? Seems like the candidates have to go to each state and pander to their needs to get their vote. What one state might need may be 180 degrees opposite of another, so they tell voters in each state something different. Is just me, or do they have to make promises to get elected or is there a vision for all of America?

McCain says he is now not for Amnesty when he pushed for an Amnesty bill in the Senate. Romney had to be pro-choice to win in Massachusetts (knowing he had to be a Governor to be President, i.e. didn't work for Steve Forbes just being a smart business man) then "sees the light" and his conversion is warmly received now as a pro-life candidate? Mike Huckabee says close the borders but then doesn't want to make the kids pay for the sins of their parents while believing its OK to have anchor babies.

Over simplification, yes. But just seems to me that the parade of states is a "we need this, promise it, and get our votes" type of event....and earmarks are the same thing, I'll get this pork if you elect me to congress.

....just a thought!     

The three legged stool, or so it's called, made up the "Reagan Revolution" and swept an actor from California into the White House twenty eight years ago. Now the question is whether or not that famous coalition is doomed and if not, who is the best candidate to carry it on.

Merrie Spaeth was Ronald Reagan's first ever Director of Media Relations, in fact she created the office and created an avenue for Reagan to by-pass the issue and go straight to the American People. I recently had the honor of sitting down with Merrie to talk about Reagan Conservatism, the coalition he built, and the legacy it deserves.

As you watch each debate, Reagan's name gets evoked the most as each candidate fights to prove they understand and can duplicate that famous formula. Reagan was pragmatic, not dogmatic, in his approach to bring parties together. "President Reagan used to love to say if you agree with me on 80% of any one of those issues, you’re in my camp and I think we need to do that today. There’s been an unfortunate tendency to create divisions among conservatives rather than, maybe I shouldn’t use the word unity, but rather a shared vision," says Merrie. "There are a couple of things about Reagan, even though he was tall and handsome, he had tremendous charisma, he wasn’t arrogant. He never exuded that he came from privilege. You always felt that he was just somebody glad to be an American. A Reagan Conservative is someone with strong values on fiscal conservatism, strong national defense, strong social values but who understands that those three things fit together and that people may agree with you 100% on all of them."

Perhaps the missing fourth leg of the stool was the working class person, the "Reagan Democrat" whom Merrie Spaeth think's the GOP has a good chance of capturing those people in 2008. ". I don’t want to criticize President Bush, but I think that’s very important is that we remember that we, Republicans, are working class people. here was a real important article I read about a teacher in Richardson, a member of the Teachers Union, and she wrote that the teacher’s union has to change...that they've settled for stability over accountability… and it’s a bad bargin for the kids, it’s a bad bargin for the educational system, and it’s really a bad bargin for teachers. That is a quintessentially Republican statement. Accountability is what we’re after, false stability doesn’t provide stability it just provides a downward spiral and I think that the Reagan democrat today in his or her heart of hearts understands that but we need to articulate it and we need to get out there and sell it whether it’s in jobs or its in health care."

Another change from the '80 election is the shear size of special interests groups that can fragment a candidate into many different directions and promises. "Are the special interests more of a player than in process now than in 1980, yes," adds Merrie. "Although, the social conservatives were a big player in the 1980’s so it’s sort of disingenuous of us to sort of say now “I guess they shouldn’t be."

As the Reagan's Director of Media Relations, Merrie Spaeth brought the White House into the space age and understands the how communications play a role in campaigns, "A number of things have happened, the communication revolution over the last 25 years or so has made it possible to find people to find one tiny position in any state, nook or cranny and get them on your side and raise money for them, so yes those are all changes that have gone on."

"As I look at what’s happening, we’re more and more of a television age, Reagan was just marvelous at being able to talk to people through television. That trend is simply accelerated and the best candidate out there today of course is Senator Obama in terms of understanding how to talk to people through television. That’s worrisome as I look at the fact that he’s better than our candidates. It’s interesting how many of the issues are still the same, people want security, they want opportunity, they want to be proud of their country, they want to believe in freedom, they want to help people here and abroad."

Many have asked, "if Ronald Reagan were running today, who would he be and could he win?" and California's current actor turned Governor came to mind. "If President Reagan were running today Imagine Gov. Schwarzenegger considerably more conservative and I think you have President Reagan today. Someone who is deeply concerned about individuals, very aware about people at the bottom of the socio-economic scale and very determined to create, not just conditions where they can take care of themselves, but a real sense of how you create strong local community institutions who can help them. I am a member of First Presbyterian and one of our ministries is the Stewpot, which provides food medical services dental services Saturday school for kids and if you look at the people who are served by the Stewpot there is a direct correlation between alcoholism drug abuse mental problems and homelessness. You don’t solve that with more money from the federal government at the top you solve it by very strong and compassionate local programs."

Does that mean a populist message, being offered by both Sen. Obama and Governor Hucakbee, is the message that will resonate most? "I don’t think Sen. Obama is a populist, he is someone who is far to the left in the political spectrum who believes Government is the solution to the problems and Government is the funding source. While I admire him tremendously and think he is a fabulous performer, I think those are the wrong policy issues. I tend to think of a populist, I am sort of not sure what the word means anymore. It used to mean people who thought who had faith in the wisdom of the people and the local governmental body as proper place to tackle issues. It doesn’t seem to mean that anymore so the term I think is in transition.

"What Reagan was above all things was very optimistic and I think if Republicans are optimistic and appeal to opportunity that differentias us significantly from the Democrats who think everything is bad, everybody is bad, everything is going wrong. All you have to do is look at John Edwards and his corporate greed strategy, how a multimillion dollar trial lawyer can say that with a trial face is beyond me. But I look at the CEOs of the companies we work with and for and those people are devoted to creating job, they are devoted to good working conditions for the people who work for them, they are involved in their communities. The corporate leadership that I see and work with are the genuine good guys."

Who does Merrie support in 08, "I have given money and decided to max out to Rudy Giuliani in the beginning and have continued because he was an assistant Attorney General at Justice when my late husband Tex Lazar was there, Tex thought very highly of him, my friend Buck Revell from the FBI who is a 25 year friend of mine and someone I admire enormously and whose judgment I trust, came and told me he was supporting Rudy and to me national security and the ability to deal with international security and law enforcement bodies around the world is the number one issue and to me Rudy comes out on top on those issues. Now there are a lot of different issues, it’s going to be a long year, that’s where I am currently. Sean Hannity has got a marvelous way of putting it, he says all the candidates have strengths, it’s a really exciting year, it’s important that we’re all civil to each other. "

And about change, she has a unique spin on the word of the day "I was interested in Iowa and New Hampshire in how often the Democrats are using the word “Change, We All Stand for Change.” The line I’ve been using is “Change has become the new Peace.” If you are as old as I am and remember the Vietnam War, you remember the saying “Give Peace a Chance.” And if you were stupid enough to say something like “what does that mean,” you were accused of being Pro-War. Change has become the new Peace, it has rapidly seast to lose its meaning but it’s also become a trap. It’s very dangerous for the Democrats by saying we want change without a single definition on any issue. Should we have a democratic president, people are going to come to them with wildly different expectations. Take of course the war on Iraq and the withdrawal of troops as probably the number one issue Senator Obama has made it perfectly clear the day after he is President he gives the order to start bringing the troops home. Senator Clinton, much much smarter, much savvier. She said the day after I am elected I call the generals together to give me a plan. And then she said very careful w’e going to bring home the troops the right way. And take it from me, if she is elected, she is going to fall back on that and said it “I am going to bring them back the right way” which is going to turn out to be not anytime soon. So change is going to be new peace.

Moving forward, Merrie is a member of the Board of Directors for the Ronald Reagan Conservative Society who is working to keep the principles of the Reagan Coalition alive in the candidates running for office. "I consider Reagan one of the great presidents of the 20th century and I think he will be regarded as one of the great president’s of all time. I don’t think we should make him into a Myth and he certainly had some shortcomings, everybody does, remembering what he stood for and those are very very worth goals. I think there is a lot to learn from our all of our great fathers. I mean George Washington who still stands as a role model of somebody who put country ahead of himself. Who kept plugging along, made mistakes, but kept going on. You could learn many of the same lessons from [President] Lincoln Many great leaders have things we can learn from and I’d like to learn more about Washington more about Lincoln more about our great Presidents and I hope people will learn and study Reagan and hold him out as a very effect role model as a leader."

Live Blogging of the SC FOX Debate:

First question to Romney about an upcoming recession, Chris Wallace points out that under Romney’s term – it had the second worst record of job growth. Romney didn’t answer the question why he should be trusted.

8:09 McCain. "Why I won in NH is because I wen there and told the truth." Straight Talk comes up.

Wallace gives him a full question about an upcoming recession and McCain  goes to his bread and butter, one that resonates with conservatives, and that is to stop the spending.

Chris goes to Huckabee " Do you think we are heading for a recession and do you have a better option?" Huckabee "Hope not but there are four things we can do...gas prices, cannot be two dependent on foreign oil...second is the sub prime issue...then goes to the fair tax."

Question to Rudy about his tax plan, Rudy "some tax cuts do add to revenue and some don't, mine is an add revenue" Cut the corporate tax as Reagan did. Good answer from Rudy, didn't sound like a NYC cheerleader but a leader. McCain  "we have to make Bush Tax Cuts permanent." Hmmm, didn't he vote against the tax cuts? Then he says Ronald Reagan understood tax cuts but also the need for cutting spending. I am a Reagan fan, but he failed to cut government spending...that was a Democrat House problem, not his, but to evoke it like he did it ... not a good choice.

8:15 Finally a question to Thompson, after Paul which is strange, Thompson "I've got to defend Rudy because his tax plan looks like the one I proposed months ago" Fred with his silver tie looks like he is going to a formal, or is that just me, but looks good!

Carl Cameron to Huckabee about the Reagan coalition is gone and your'e not running as Reagan Huckabee corrects Campaign Carl on saying he isn't running for a third Bush term. Huckabee goes into what is Reagan Principles. I was part of the evangelical coalition that helped get Reagan elected, we need to

Question to McCain about Huckabee's camp saying Reagan's coalition is gone, McCain won't take the bait and says that its true that we aren't living up to Reagan's principles. Ut oh, he is sounding the climate change alarm. "We have to return to the those principles..." He does sound like he is trying not to be negative, almost like he is asleep.

Carl Cameron asks about abortion services in Massachusetts, Romney "was required by the courts, not by me" to have the abortion portion of the health care... that's the first anyone has heard of that.  Romney says Washington moved from the Reagan Principles and in some ways the Republican Party has... hmmmm, will he be criticized for criticizing the party like those want to criticize others? Good point talking about his record saying Thompson cuts in ("Carl, can I say something) about Reagan and uses it as an attack on Huckabee. Hmmm, he is sounding strong. Now he is attacking Huckabee, hmmm, this is the South Carolina last stand. He did garner a loud applause in his response. Huckabee responds with a great line back at Fred about being only getting flack when you're over the target meaning he wouldn't be attacked if he was right. Good comeback. Good Applause back. I think Huck wins that one.

8:28 Rudy says the reason Ronald Reagan won was because he was a strong leader and Carter was not and he had a 50 state strategy... hmmm, seems a little bit of a hitching to a wagon answer that could have been different. "I am a conservative..." He is making the case he can win the General Election and a "broad tent" strategy.

Question to Huckabee "did the commander act appropriately by being " Huckabee I am going to trust the president that he had the right information and made the call. "Be prepared for the Gates of Hell" to a LARGE
applause. Hume follows up saying that the commanders felt like there was a threat and engages Huckabee on should they have been able to engage it.  Sounds very presidential. Thompson agrees with Huckabee. "If they had taken one more step and they would have seen those Virgins they've wanted to see" with another round of applause. Rudy says the NIE shouldn't be ignored and says we shouldn't be led into some sense of false confidence with regards to Iran. McCain I would have placed my confidence in the captain of the ship and if I was captain I would have done what they did. Nice return to close back to and talk about the troops, he will always seem credible on this subject. (WHERES ROMNEY, he is getting shut out on this debate)

8:41 Paul gets asked ahead of Mitt, wow, I can hear HUGH ALL THE WAY FROM CAL! Paul just shows how out of touch with America is. "All the candidates so far have supported the commanders to be passive, I just wonder what you are complaining about." (In the backgound Fred says Passive?) Romney (how do you follow up Paul) and says "I don't Cong Paul should be reading all of Ak-maloony's press releases" to a chorus of applause and boo's. He is clearly getting frustrated that he isn't getting asked anything, sounding very defensive.

8:45 Wendell gets the next round, to McCain "can the democrats win by denying...." is a good response. Showing a difference between GOP and Democrats. Softball question about troops, right to his strength, and he does well as he should. Rudy gets the next question about how he would keep a palestinian state from being a breeding ground for future terrorists. 1 accept Israel as a state, 2 forgo terrorists and goes with Reagan's Trust by Verify line... a little awkward. Now he attacks McCain by saying "John there were others on this stage that also supported the surge and documents his support. McCain briefly says he called for a change from Rumsfeld. No fireworks.

Next question from Wendell to Thompson about supporting Pakistan..."oh my goodness go against a poll" and "you can tell things are going so well in Iraq because you read so little of it in the New York Times." This is the Fred Thompson many people have wanted to see, too little too late? He needed this kind of a performance several debates and two states ago! Press but don't give up.. Romney about Musharaff not still going out Bin Laden and should we support him...then has a weak line about things used to be checkers and now it's three dimensional chess... is he trying to say winning the cold war didn't take much work, it was simple? Weird.  Never did answer the question about supporting Musharaff. Huckabee are we throwing good money after bad in Pakistan. He says we need to talk about better accountability but, like the others on stage, we have to be worried about the vacuum that could happen. Then he contrasts himself with Paul and has a very strong presidential look. One good about Paul is it gives the candidates a chance to show how strong they are because of how weak Paul is. Thompson says Huckabee is worried about the money we are giving to Pakistan is going for military and he is saying that is where it is supposed to go. No rebuttal allowed, they go to break which is a break for Huckabee.

Break #2  GOLD: Fred, SILVER Hucakbee, BRONZE Rudy

9:04 Chris Wallce says because McCain and Hillary won, does the country really want change? Romney  Nope, and gets a mild laugh. He goes into a resume speech. Not a good night for Romney. It's hurting him tonight. Wallace tells Mccain that Romney has been more polite tonight than he has been on the campaign trail Senator McCain, are you part of the solution or part of the problem. McCain talks about the positive things he has done in Washington. Wallace goes after Huckabee saying that Huckabee was big government. He is saying results drive what he did, but he doesn't say he isn't big government. He will not win over the critics with his answer, but will he win over the voters... he did in Iowa. Thompson rebuttal. Says he signed the tax pledge but flip flopped on it. Good answer. He is making the same argument that McCain did that he can be a part of something good in Washington. Again, the only question is it too little too late? Huckabee responds. You passed the welfare reform but Governors made it work but those who had to govern at the state level and they had to make it work (applause.)

Cameron question to Rudy is what makes him a better Commander in Chief than McCain but he talks about the previous question and it isn't a strong response..it's a no response to the question. Is it just me, but when Rudy talks about his resume...like Romney...it sounds canned. Just a style question. McCain is asked did he answer the question, and McCain says he has been involved in every major national security decision and not out of profit but patriotism. Cameron asks about electability and asks about his Southern Baptist and Huckabee and has a great "Huckabee" moment  with We are always told we can't talk about Religion but its ok to ask me about, They need to learn not to ask a Baptist Minister about Religion. It's like asking McCain about service in the military. Largest Sustained Applause of the night. (9:19) Great question to Paul, speaking of electability, do you have any? WOW! Paul, put the pencil down, you might throw it at Cameron after that question.

Break #3 ... same as before, Fred, Huckabee, Rudy

Immigration, finally, to McCain: How wold you fix the problem about securing the borders? McCain says the 2 million that have committed crimes must be sent back immediately. uses that same line about not deporting the wife of a service man and goes WAY past the bell. Romney "Governor Romney I didn't hear how McCain would remove the illegals." and is asked how he wold remove the 12 million and he says it wasn't addressed by McCain. He says the should stand in line and given no special privileiges and says they are examined in a case by case basis. Thompson ... Romney says we have to handle it on a case by case and Thompson says we can't. "hide fences and wide gates and we get to decide when to open it"  Good line and says we use federal funding to control what happens, cut if off if they don't do it right. Then attacks McCain on the bill and Huckabee on scholarships for illegals and goes past the bell too. (How about turning off the mic when the bell rings) Huckabee is asked about President Bush's outreach to hispanic then we get to illegal immigration, how do we convince hispanics we want them here? Good answer talking about hispanics who wanted to be here legally have been the ones who have complained. Don't agree that "the government didn't get them here so the government doesn't have to get them back" except that no one can answer how to get 12 million people out of the US. Rudy is asked if he ran a sanctuary city and as President would it be ok for other mayors not to ask about their status. He says if you ask about their status they will not report crimes. There are ways to get around that, I would think. Bottom line is there isn't a one perfect answer. Again, someone goes WAY past the bell. TURN OFF THE MIC!

Debate is over, winner is Thompson and second goes to Huckabee... then second tier would be Rudy and McCain...bad night for Romney.  Of course, Hugh Hewitt will pick Romney as the best thing since sliced bread.

Frank Luntz's focus group agrees with me. Too bad, because he could be in Hugh's blog if they had picked Romney.

Post Debate on FOX:
McCAIN: to be honest, I didn't watch.. .needed the break

ROMNEY This says it all about Romney, he was asked by Alan Colmes in his post debate about saying in 1994 distancing himself from Reagan/Bush. The answer was he went the funeral and had a convergence and now he knows how optimistic he was. Ok, Huckabee gets hit for not knowing about the NIE and it took Mitt Romney till 2004 to understand Reagan's optimism and his and GHWB's importance to the Republican Party. EXCUSE ME. This has bee the biggest flip flop of them all. Come on, SOMEONE HAS TO ASK HIM ABOUT THIS!

RUDY This is why I do like him, he is honest and doesn't duck. Do I agree with him on the social issues, not at all. But when he is asked about his strategy, the tells you like it is. He is likeable, that's for sure and I don't think he is the kind of a guy that would get mad at you if you told honestly how you felt.

FRANK LUNTZ says MIKE HUCKABEE's line about the Gates of Hell was "off the charts!"  Fred's "going to see those seventy virgins" line was also off the chart.     

PREDICTION: I put my predictions in an envelope Monday afternoon and opened them to see how I did:

WITH 96% IN:
McCain 36%..................and he finished with 37%
Romney 29%................and he finished with 32%
Huckabee 14%.............and he finished with 11%
Giuliani 11%.................and he finished with 9%
Paul 6%.........................and he finished with 8%
Thompson 4%.............and he finished with 1%

Not bad, not too far off.. Two states, two good predictions. I wouldn't have expected 1% for Fred Thompson. Who would have expected Dennis Kucinich getting 3xs as many as Mr Law & Order?

With the recent victory by Mike Huckabee in Iowa, pundit and prognosticators alike have attributed his win ONLY to getting the evangelical vote.

REALLY?  Remember back in December, Huckabee won the Grassfire.org National poll, dateline Maxwell, IA. "Grassroots conservatives are taking a closer look at Huckabee and apparently like what they see," said Steve Elliott, President of Grassfire.org. "It is a remarkable turnaround. "

Huckabee's Support Has Wide, Deep Potential

The poll also found that grassroots conservatives find Hucakbee among the most trustworthy on the issue of stopping illegal immigration -- in a statistical dead-heat with immigration stalwart Tom Tancredo with each at 20 percent. "Grassroots conservatives at this point in time trust Mike Huckabee with their most important issue -- securing our borders," says Elliott. In addition, 25% of grassroots conservatives now think Huckabee will win the nomination -- up from just 2 percent in September. And among the major Republican candidates, Huckabee is the least likely to spark an exodus if he wins. "All these factors indicate Huckabee's surge may have staying power and his upside potential is high," says Elliott.

•Border Security is #1 issue: Nine of ten grassroots conservatives list "securing our borders" among their top issues. Other key issues in order of importance: Reducing the tax burden (66%), Second Amendment rights (65%), Iraq War--Stay the Course (64%), Defend traditional marrage (61%), Protecting the Unborn (58%).

Wonder why the media hasn't brought up this poll? Hmmm......

PREDICTION: I put my predictions in an envelope Thursday afternoon and opened them to see how I did:

Huckabee 28%........and he finished with 34%
Romney 26%...........and he finished with 25%
McCain 14%.............and he finished with13%
Thompson 13%......and he finished with13%
Giuliani 9%..............and he finished with 4%
Paul 4%....................and he finished with 10%

Not bad, only real difference is how much more Huckabee got and the flip between Paul and Giuliani. Other than that, pretty dead on.

Bottom line, Huckabee got a significant victory. It's on to New Hampshire...

He doesn’t have money. He doesn’t have organization. All he has is support from evangelicals. That can’t be enough, can it? Well, the answer is yes but the question is misleading. Six months ago, Mitt Romney had Iowa locked up. He campaigned on being the true conservative in the race, banking on getting the social conservative vote. What he didn’t count on was a Governor with a solid social conservative resume upsetting the apple cart – and that is precisely what Mike Huckabee did.

Throughout the debates, the loveable former Arkansas Governor showed a side most other candidates couldn’t duplicate…he wasn’t angry. Instead of speaking down to voters, people got the sense he was talking with them. Then came the Iowa Straw Poll. Rudy Giuliani and John McCain made a tactical decision not to compete and Fred Thompson had yet to enter the race. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, spent millions trying to lock up a win in the non-binding event. While he won, Mike Huckabee came in a strong second and sucked a lot of oxygen out of the Romney campaign.

Romney, we were told, had the organization to go along with the millions he could spend in advertising. Huckabee, on the other hand, parlayed his debate performances into appearances on show after show. Perfect for a campaign battling the chicken-and-egg theory of ones who struggle: we need money to compete vs. we could compete if we only had money.

As Caucus day approached, and Huckabee’s numbers became a Huckaboom and Romney decided to go negative. Some say they are contrast ads, but the voters saw it differently…they saw them as attacks and a turn-off.

In real estate, it’s location… location… location. In Iowa, it’s organization… organization… organization. And the drumbeat was, Romney had it and Huckabee did not. Truth is, Huckabee had it help in ways the press didn’t understand or failed to pick up on. Romney did get his people out, it's just st Huckabee got more.

What the Washington elites seemed to under estimate was the general feeling of the Republican electorate, a feeling that values matter and our culture cannot continue to go down the road of decay it has been for such a long time. Main street values are different from Washington Values. As Romney Aide Alex Castellanos told Politico, “If you live in Washington D.C., tonight wasn’t a good night for you.” Indeed, Iowans decided to draw a line in the sand by demanding that the GOP get it right on when it comes to the core GOP beliefs before devoting attention to other peripheral issues.

Not that the war on terror is a peripheral issue, but as Mike Huckabee says if we think abortion is ok as a form of convenience, what’s the difference between us and radical Islam who lets you strap on a bomb to kill innocent people. It is a difference between a culture of life and a culture of death.

So the voters of Iowa rewarded Mike Huckabee for being strong on social issues while staying positive during the campaign, possibly ignoring doubts they may have had on fiscal issues. A good friend of mine, and someone who any candidate would love to have on their side, told me at lunch “I can trust Huckabee to come around on the fiscal side of the house, I simply cannot trust someone else who changed on the social issues simply to get elected.”

Of course, it is the Holy Grail we seek as Republicans: who is that “Next Reagan” that will continue the legacy he built for conservatives. But what is a Reagan Conservative? Could it be the old analogy, you’ll know it when you see it? Perhaps. President Reagan stood for the “shining city on hill,” so he wasn’t opposed to government being good. The Reagan principles included standing up for the middle class, smaller and smarter government, lowering the tax burden on Americans, protecting innocent human life, and a strong and vibrant military. He also worked hard to build a coalition of conservative Republicans and Democrats, proving everyone could be part of the process.

The Washington Elites are worried Huckabee’s record won’t be conservative enough, but I go back to the comments of my friend at lunch: what does it matter if we lose our soul in the process.

As we move to Granite State…ask yourself this question: if Mike Huckabee is so liberal…shouldn’t he be doing well in New Hampshire where Republicans are more moderate? Look at the polls, and the moderates are favoring Mitt Romney and not Mike Huckabee. Doesn’t that send up some red flags?

Mike Hucakbee has risen in the polls in every future state, including the “fertile ground” of South Carolina as well as non-evangelical hotbeds of Michigan and Florida. Supposedly he was perfectly positioned in Iowa because of the base “evangelical base” in Iowa but he won’t have that in New Hampshire. Can they have it both ways? Perhaps.

The message Mike Huckabee delivers has resonated in every stump speech, every debate, and even in the audience of the Jay Leno show. He has a plan to reduce the tax burden of every American. He will stand up for the rights of the un-born. He has more executive experience of any candidate running. And, he has already won.

Now, the pundits say, comes the scrutiny of the microscope or “be ready for the kitchen sink.” I make the argument that the kitchen sink, countertops, tables, chairs, napkins, forks, and knives have already come his way and he has beaten them all back. The race from here on out will certainly get tougher, but Mike Huckabee has shown he can stand the heat of the kitchen…and it’s sink.

While broadcasting a high school playoff football game, the Commerce Tigers knew they were facing an uphill challenge against a much better team. At half time, the crowds were had spent two quarters going wild as the team had built a 14-7 lead. That second half was much different and Commerce ended up losing 52-14. Reality hit us all like a ton of bricks.

So while were not even to “half time,” in fact is in reality is it has just started, Mike Huckabee has seen what a quick start can do to a campaign. What he has to do is avoid that second half ton of bricks that might be about to fall on him. If, over the next couple of weeks, he can ride this momentum and make the right tweaks…he can be the next Republican Nominee for President.

Tonight's the night, and the voters get to decide this and not the pundits.

My Prediction: Huckabee, Romney (-4), McCain (-12), Thompson (-18).

7: 35 Update: If you have ever been to a Republican Precinct Convention, this is much the same thing with a exit poll for President.  Bill Bennett is saying on CNN that he believes there will be a large evangelical turnout and that benefits Huckabee.    

7:38 Update: Edwards 34% Clinton 32% Obama 31%....according to CNN with 10% reporting. Republicans.... Huckabee 33% Romney 24% Fred 17% McCain 11%.... 2% reporting

7:49 Update: 23% reporting 33 Edwards 32 Clinton 32 Obama.... 15% reporting 36% Huckabee 23% Romney, 15% Thompson, 12% McCain    

7:55 FOX CALLS THE RACE FOR HUCKABEE!

8:02 CNN CALLS THE RACE FOR HUCKABEE!

8:40 CNN's SOLEDAD O'BRIEN JUST SAID "YOU HAVE TO WONDER HOW A BLACK GUY WON?"

8:42 FOX NEWS "IF YOU GET BARACK OBAMA, YOU GET THE MOST LIBERAL CANDIDATE," JUAN WILLIAMS

8:53 "IOWA IS THE WHITEST PLACE OUTSIDE THE NORTH POLL," JACK CAFFERTY  .... excuse me! Imagine if someone said this is the blackest place outside of .... EXCUSE ME, ADD THAT TO O'BRIEN AND SOMEONE NEEDS TO APOLOGIZE!

8:58 FOX NEWS "There Problem Mitt Romney was 'where's the beef?' Mitt Romney had message problems," David Yepsen.

8:59 FOX NEWS Chris Wallace: "I think we have a new star, if not a new front runner. It's not just his personality or his religion, he is the agent of change." I think Mike Huckabee is in this race for a long time," Chris Wallace.

QUICK NOTE: They are now saying Huckabee is going to see the kitchen sink thrown at him with tonight's win. I think the sink, countertops, table, chairs, forks and knives have already been thrown at him and the voters have rejected it. As Michael Steele said when asked by Colmes what the chances were Huckabee could win and responded,  "pretty dawg'gone good."     

Ronald Reagan is the patriarch of the Republican Revolution, in large part because he was able to get votes from both Republicans and Independents. Some thirty years ago, the elites in American politics considered him dumb. He didn’t know anything about foreign policy, Nor did he call on Washington to run his campaign. He never went to Yale or Harvard, just a small college in middle-America. He knew how to communicate, and the people loved him.

Some thirty plus years later, another Governor from a similar background who knows how to communicate has thrown his hat into the Presidential ring. He, too like Reagan, didn’t come from the East Coast elite college but from a small middle-American school. Like Reagan, he made his mark in a field where being able to communicate is key. His name, Mike Hucakbee. Like it or not, he’s driving the GOP pundits in America hysterical.

While his 2008 Presidential Obituary continues to be written, Hucakbee simply continues to move ahead and wages a campaign not built on anger but one he says is on hope. Or as he says many times on the campaign stump, “let’s give Hope a second chance” in referring to its former resident who became President: Bill Clinton.

Huckabee’s message of trying to get people to think Government can be good is like asking Dallas Cowboy fans to cheer on the Redskins or asking cats to like dogs…some things in life just won’t happen. However, in a time where all members of government have lower approval ratings than Rosie O’Donnell, Huckabee is promoting a brand of politics he calls “vertical instead of horizontal. “

In what started with the Democrats pure hatred of Republicans over the Clinton Impeachment, Washington politics has become even more of a zero-sum game. Add to the fact that Democrats still feel they won the White House in 2000 and 2004 plus the bitterness over the War…and that zero-sum game has gone into 100% full attack-and-destroy mode. The days of Ronald Reagan and Tip O’Neal sitting down for a 5 o’clock cocktail are long gone.

Coming to Washington, George W. Bush thought he could change that. As Governor of Texas, he
built a reputation for being able to work with Democrats. The Top-dog Democrat in Texas, Lt. Governor Bob Bullock, worked with W to get things done for Texans…so much so that the two developed a deep friendship, one he thought would work in Washington D.C. Unfortunately for America, Bush has failed to move Washington back to the Reagan way.

For Huckabee, populism has been the key theme. With his never-changing core social beliefs combined with his likeability, the former Arkansas Governor has become a popular choice for Republicans. So much so it has spurred him from no-tier to near front-tier status. Even after weeks of mistakes and mishaps, he continues to defy the pundits who have said his campaign has committed “Huckacide.”

Just hours before the Iowa voters attend their Caucus, talk show hosts across the country have said the polls don’t reflect the week of blunders or blow ups. The ad that was an ad that then wasn’t an ad? It’s going to be the final nail in the coffin according to some. Daily attacks by Romney supporters, include a well known California talk show host, and being outspent 20-1 has be enough to end the campaign, right?

Problem is, it’s the voters who support Huckabee… and not the pundits. Iowans who were polled by Frank Luntz on Hannity & Colmes fired shots back that have to have the Romney campaign shaking in their perverbial boots. “I don’t’ believe [Romney’s ad is legitimate] because in Iowa we are issues based,” said one focus group voter. “I am not going to stand for a negative ad, I want to know what the candidate is going to do for me.” Another voter added, “I think we all agree we don’t want to hear it, all the negativity, it’s irritating.” Frank Luntz tried to get it going by asking, “It’s substance, [Romney’s] talking about Hucakbee’s record only to hear “tell us what you are going to do, not necessarily try and provide some information that maybe distorted…or that is not factual in some cases.”

Worse yet, listen to one voter who proves that Grassroots Republicans in Iowa can sense what campaigning is all about, “Romney was getting concerned that Huckabee was surging in the polls and anytime I see an ad like [Romney’s] it indicates to me like those kind of things are taken out of context to make sure voters have a question in their mind about what Huckabee is all about. “

Couldn’t have said it better myself, and it hasn’t played in Iowa. Mitt Romney may well indeed pull things out in Iowa, certainly the pundits are all predicting it. However, no one would have predicted Mike Huckabee surging to second place six months ago.

It could be a lose/lose situation for Huckabee when you consider two things. Should the former Arkansas Governor win Iowa, he’s already received a “Huckasurge” so he doesn’t get a bump for New Hampshire. Second place means the “Huckasurge” was indeed a “Huckabust” and he may not have the have the money or organization to keep going.

Understand this, all candidates have their drawbacks. Could there be another campaign year when a pro-choice/pro-gay/pro-gun control candidate could be taken seriously for the nomination? Could someone from Massachusetts with a record of flip flopping hope to be the nominee four years after America rejected someone from Massachusetts with a record of flip flopping from becoming President? Could someone who has voted against Tax Cuts and voted to end free-speech in campaigns become the GOP Nominee?

Mike Huckabee isn’t the perfect candidate, none are. He is for sure not the candidate for the elites on the East and West coast either. He simply hasn’t been taken seriously by those opinions one must covet when running for President.

Perhaps it’s because he was never expected to exceed single digits, or perhaps it’s because he didn’t ascend in the polls through the help of the punditry…whatever the case, Mike Huckabee is loved by the grassroots Republicans and that it is driving the inside-the-beltway GOP elites bonkers.

Come Thursday night, one thing is for sure, we’ll know who Iowans like and perhaps see either the most eloquent spin by the GOP elites or be able to offer some salt to go with that crow…my guess, it’s spin baby! That’s what makes politics fun.