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Why Huckabee Won and Can Win the Nomination

He doesn’t have money. He doesn’t have organization. All he has is support from evangelicals. That can’t be enough, can it? Well, the answer is yes but the question is misleading. Six months ago, Mitt Romney had Iowa locked up. He campaigned on being the true conservative in the race, banking on getting the social conservative vote. What he didn’t count on was a Governor with a solid social conservative resume upsetting the apple cart – and that is precisely what Mike Huckabee did.

Throughout the debates, the loveable former Arkansas Governor showed a side most other candidates couldn’t duplicate…he wasn’t angry. Instead of speaking down to voters, people got the sense he was talking with them. Then came the Iowa Straw Poll. Rudy Giuliani and John McCain made a tactical decision not to compete and Fred Thompson had yet to enter the race. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, spent millions trying to lock up a win in the non-binding event. While he won, Mike Huckabee came in a strong second and sucked a lot of oxygen out of the Romney campaign.

Romney, we were told, had the organization to go along with the millions he could spend in advertising. Huckabee, on the other hand, parlayed his debate performances into appearances on show after show. Perfect for a campaign battling the chicken-and-egg theory of ones who struggle: we need money to compete vs. we could compete if we only had money.

As Caucus day approached, and Huckabee’s numbers became a Huckaboom and Romney decided to go negative. Some say they are contrast ads, but the voters saw it differently…they saw them as attacks and a turn-off.

In real estate, it’s location… location… location. In Iowa, it’s organization… organization… organization. And the drumbeat was, Romney had it and Huckabee did not. Truth is, Huckabee had it help in ways the press didn’t understand or failed to pick up on. Romney did get his people out, it's just st Huckabee got more.

What the Washington elites seemed to under estimate was the general feeling of the Republican electorate, a feeling that values matter and our culture cannot continue to go down the road of decay it has been for such a long time. Main street values are different from Washington Values. As Romney Aide Alex Castellanos told Politico, “If you live in Washington D.C., tonight wasn’t a good night for you.” Indeed, Iowans decided to draw a line in the sand by demanding that the GOP get it right on when it comes to the core GOP beliefs before devoting attention to other peripheral issues.

Not that the war on terror is a peripheral issue, but as Mike Huckabee says if we think abortion is ok as a form of convenience, what’s the difference between us and radical Islam who lets you strap on a bomb to kill innocent people. It is a difference between a culture of life and a culture of death.

So the voters of Iowa rewarded Mike Huckabee for being strong on social issues while staying positive during the campaign, possibly ignoring doubts they may have had on fiscal issues. A good friend of mine, and someone who any candidate would love to have on their side, told me at lunch “I can trust Huckabee to come around on the fiscal side of the house, I simply cannot trust someone else who changed on the social issues simply to get elected.”

Of course, it is the Holy Grail we seek as Republicans: who is that “Next Reagan” that will continue the legacy he built for conservatives. But what is a Reagan Conservative? Could it be the old analogy, you’ll know it when you see it? Perhaps. President Reagan stood for the “shining city on hill,” so he wasn’t opposed to government being good. The Reagan principles included standing up for the middle class, smaller and smarter government, lowering the tax burden on Americans, protecting innocent human life, and a strong and vibrant military. He also worked hard to build a coalition of conservative Republicans and Democrats, proving everyone could be part of the process.

The Washington Elites are worried Huckabee’s record won’t be conservative enough, but I go back to the comments of my friend at lunch: what does it matter if we lose our soul in the process.

As we move to Granite State…ask yourself this question: if Mike Huckabee is so liberal…shouldn’t he be doing well in New Hampshire where Republicans are more moderate? Look at the polls, and the moderates are favoring Mitt Romney and not Mike Huckabee. Doesn’t that send up some red flags?

Mike Hucakbee has risen in the polls in every future state, including the “fertile ground” of South Carolina as well as non-evangelical hotbeds of Michigan and Florida. Supposedly he was perfectly positioned in Iowa because of the base “evangelical base” in Iowa but he won’t have that in New Hampshire. Can they have it both ways? Perhaps.

The message Mike Huckabee delivers has resonated in every stump speech, every debate, and even in the audience of the Jay Leno show. He has a plan to reduce the tax burden of every American. He will stand up for the rights of the un-born. He has more executive experience of any candidate running. And, he has already won.

Now, the pundits say, comes the scrutiny of the microscope or “be ready for the kitchen sink.” I make the argument that the kitchen sink, countertops, tables, chairs, napkins, forks, and knives have already come his way and he has beaten them all back. The race from here on out will certainly get tougher, but Mike Huckabee has shown he can stand the heat of the kitchen…and it’s sink.

While broadcasting a high school playoff football game, the Commerce Tigers knew they were facing an uphill challenge against a much better team. At half time, the crowds were had spent two quarters going wild as the team had built a 14-7 lead. That second half was much different and Commerce ended up losing 52-14. Reality hit us all like a ton of bricks.

So while were not even to “half time,” in fact is in reality is it has just started, Mike Huckabee has seen what a quick start can do to a campaign. What he has to do is avoid that second half ton of bricks that might be about to fall on him. If, over the next couple of weeks, he can ride this momentum and make the right tweaks…he can be the next Republican Nominee for President.

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