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It's Time to Frame The Debate

We have the most crucial election in American History and the American People are getting a slick package that has no contents to it. It's much like a shinny bag of potato chips, all nice on the outside but when you open it up - there's really nothing there but a bunch of crumbs. This election is coming down to two very distinct views on taxatation, our security since 9/11, and the size and scope of Government...and the mainstream media in this country's desire and actions to determine the outcome of the election. As this the title says, It's time, in fact beyond the time, to frame the debate to the American People.

During the first televised debate in American History, Senator John F. Kennedy turned to Richard Nixon and basically said "Mr. Nixon is the nominee of the Republican Party and the Republican Party stands for this..." and layed out all that he felt was wrong with the GOP. Now is the time, with the opportunities missed last night, to lay out to the American people the case much like JFK did in 1960.

Taxation: Barack Obama believes in wealth redistribution, plain and simple. He says under his oplan 95% of Americans will see a tax cut. Plainly put, IMPOSSIBLE. 40% of Americans do not pay taxes, so that means you will be getting in essence a welfare check in the mail. Senator McCain needs to look squarely at Barack Obama and say, "With all due respect, It's time to educate the American People about your policies and bottom line - you are for wealth redistribution. You want to take from those that create jobs and give it to those that don't have jobs. You quote President Kennedy a lot in these debates, well Senator Obama, let me quote Senaator Kennedy on taxation..." and then tell him how JFK advocated the same taxation policies of Ronald Reagan...and close it with "it's not a blame game, Senator Obama, it's matter of fact."

Broken Promises: Barack Obama has made a cornerstone of his campaign "Promises" but has a record of breaking them...much like Bill Clinton did when running in 1992. He said he would push for tax cuts while running for Senate and has not made one effort since for them. Remember in 1992, Bill Clinton ran on tax cuts but once in office said the dynamics had changed and he could no longer afford to push for them. The Democrats have a strategy of promising one thing, and then going back on those promises. Once you're in office, it's harder to get you out - so simply promise the moon. There are no main street media check's and balances when it comes to Democrats, so why tell the truth? The line used by Senator McCain of "Rhetoric vs Record" should be front and center, the backdrop of campaign stops, signs printed and used...the focal point of this campaign for the next 20+ days. 

America since 9/11: Remind the American People of the doom and gloom the main stream media forecasted in the weeks and months following the attacks on our country, how they continued to tell everyone "get ready for more, life as we know it is different." This is a risky strategy, but hear me out, tie yourself to President Bush to some extent. When Barack Obama uses the line of Just another Four Years of President Bush, turn and look Senator Obama straight and say "Yes Senator, I do agree with you that I want another four more years of something President Bush accomplished for America. No one in America, in the months after 9/11, believed another attack against us here wouldn't happen. We were all told "it's only a matter of time." We were told the economy would be devestated for the next decade. We were told all kinds of gloom and oom from the main stream media and one person stood up for America and that was President Bush. His targeted tax cuts kept us from going into a recession in 2001 and led to unemployment figures being lower than President Clinton. We had unprecedented job growth following the most horrific attack on our shores. And, while I disagreed with the President on how we should have fought this war in Iraq, that's right Senator Obama President Bush and I disagreed fundamentally on the execution of the war and I fought for the surge. A surge that to this day have yet to say worked when in fact it did. Where I don't disagree with him on is his desire to keep America safe and My Friends, those gloom and doomers were wrong and we haven't been attacked again in this country and so yes, I would love to see four more years of America being safe." Now, you continue to tell the American public it was the failed policies of President Bush, but Senator, you're wrong. What has us in this economic crisis is the actions of the Party you are here representing. You want to criticize me for being a de-regulator, when it was forced regulations that got us where we're at. Your partners at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with the help of radical organizations like ACORN, forced regulations to give loans to those who economically didn't qualify. When the balloon burst, after all the contributions they gave to your campaign, we had a bust that America is paying deeply for." This would effectively tie national security to economic security.

Size and Scope of America: Ronald Reagan once said that Government isn't the solution, Government is the Problem. As companies face economic challenges, they have to make tough decisions and unfortunately workers lose their jobs...but not in Washington DC. Ther e has never been a layoff at one government agency in America. Why, you see, Democrats want to grow the size of government. All the new spending Senator Obama has pushed for will grow the size of government and scope of it's role in your lifes. They already did this by forcing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into over regulation on the American people that caused us to have the worst financial crises we've seen in decades. My Friends, when we grow government - we grow problems that we can't fix overnight. These problems, created by the Democrats, have made live on Main Street tougher. You see, you can't force Government to do what people can do for themselves.

Bottom Line, McCain must use the last debate to be a game changer. He must use phrases like, "Senator Obama this isn't about blame as you like to blame everything on President Bush but about education, educating the American Public as to the direction you want to take it. You have a track record of offering something to get elected, and then not living up to that promise. You want Goverment to force regulations on America, force fairness on America with wealth redistribution tax policies, and surrender in Iraq.  You want to blame President Bush for every problem in America without offering one solution to move America Forward. My Friends, this election isn't President Bush and the past but about America and it's future. A future, that unlike Senator Obama, I believe is strong. I don't believe we are bitter, tied to our guns and Religion. I don't say one thing to K Street and another to Main Street. In this election, we can vote for the failed liberal policies of the past put forth by Senator Obama or we can move America Forward with tax cuts, smaller government, less regulation, and more freedom. It's just a choice, more liberalism or more American Freedom."
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Life imitating Art, well sort of

Six months ago, all the talk was the Republicans were headed for a brokered convention while Hillary had her party's nomination locked up. A strange thing happened on the way to today, roles have been reversed!

Now, what will happen with Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Hussein Obama? HRC says she is starting to get her mo-jo back and makes the argument she wins all the "big states" while BHO says "I've got the delegates and she can't catch up." It made me do some thinking, as someone who actually watched NBC's "The West Wing," it reminds me of their their plot line at the end...a brokered convention for the Democrats.

From Wikipedia, "The Democratic National Convention has finally arrived and despite the best efforts of the White House, there is still no Presidential nominee.

Leo, as convention Chair sits down with representatives from the Russell, Santos and Hoynes campaigns and in between the fighting tries to organize proceedings. The potential nominees will be allowed to speak before two ballots will take place. With no one prepared to give up ground, Leo resorts to Rock, Paper, Scissors to decide the speaking order. Josh is trying to work out where he can find the crucial votes needed to win Santos the nomination. With the belief that Hoynes' campaign is over, Josh asks his former boss to transfer his votes to Santos after the first ballot. Hoynes says he'll think about it. Meanwhile, the Russell camp receives some bad news; Governor Eric Baker, their choice for Vice President after Santos's rejection wants to talk again.

With voting in the first ballot going on, Russell tries to convince Baker to stay on board - a Russell-Baker ticket is being touted by the media as a potential rival for the Vinick-Sullivan Republican ticket - but Baker remains unconvinced. After announcing he'll sleep on it, Russell tells Will and Donna that he believes Baker is going to enter the race at the second ballot and try and get elected from the floor.

As news spreads of Baker's plans, the Russell and Santos campaigns each begin to frantically tally the delegates' potential votes. Everyone is working out where the votes are going to be won and lost - with what seems like most of the Northeast's delegates defecting to Baker, as Baker makes his intentions known to the press.

Leo gets what is now the four candidates together and tells them the second ballot will end in deadlock. He says there will be another chance to address the convention before the third ballot, and urges them to make some calls to try and decide a nominee before things get too out of hand. As the votes are announced in the background, Santos, Russell, and Baker are all about even, while Hoynes has a mere 102 votes.

At Russell Headquarters, Will concedes to Donna that with Baker picking up momentum, he isn't sure they can make it to the fourth ballot. As Donna says that maybe they should approach Josh again about the Vice-President job, Will says that at the moment, he'd settle for a Santos-Russell ticket. Meanwhile in the Santos camp, Josh says they need the teachers' unions to have a shot at winning the nomination. However, the teachers' unions are unabashedly opposed to Santos due to his campaign promise to end teacher tenure. Despite this, Josh still goes to see Ernie Gambelli, the head of the Unions. He says there can be no deal without a policy shift from Santos. When Josh returns, he is presented with a fax, detailing hospital admittance records for Baker's wife, who suffers from depression. Josh tells Santos to release the information; it makes Baker susceptible to blackmail otherwise. Santos refuses. The Russell campaign has also received the fax and a similar argument ensues between Will and Donna. Despite Donna's best efforts, Will says he will encourage the Vice President to release the information. With the information out in the open, Baker's hopes of the nomination disappear.

As day three of the Convention dawns, Leo urges Josh to get the Congressman to quit the race. Josh tells him Santos won't listen. Leo goes to see him himself, and tells him he must step aside in favor of either Russell or Baker, and he'll receive a chance to address the Convention. Meanwhile, with the President at the convention site, C.J. tells the President that perhaps it is time he chose his own successor.

When Santos delivers his speech, he announces to the arena that although he has been asked to step aside, he will not, telling the delegates it is their decision who receives the nomination. He goes on to denounce the use of Baker's wife's depression as a tool for influencing the nomination. Josh is astounded by the speech, since he believed Santos would finally quit. As Bartlet watches, he tells Leo to find Josh.

Josh exits an elevator with a clearly irate Gambelli telling him another meeting with Santos is pointless as Santos won't change his position. Josh tells him he isn't going to see "his guy," and introduces him to the President. In the fourth ballot, as the tide finally turns, Gambelli is one of several delegates to declare his votes for Congressman Matthew Santos."

Roll the Twilight Zone Music, sounds like Hollywood might be writing today's Democratic Script!

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Barack Obama: The Placebo Candidate

I was watching an old episode of M*A*S*H, you know the one where they ran out of pain killers and had to use sugar pills as a placebo. If you sell it well enough, they'll believe it is what Colonel Potter said. It doesn't have to be made of anything, but if they believe it does, they'll feel better.

This past week, one of the biggest controversies has been what do you call Barack? Well, his mother and father called him Barack Hussein Obama. Other's have had the three names used....ow about Richard Millhouse Nixon. I've even heard Dwight David Eisenhower. We've all heard Hillary Rodham Clinton...so much so it caused Rush to use her maiden name in parodying All-President Adviser David Rodham Gergen. The feminist loved it, the three name era was alive and well.

Now, we've got name-gate with the likely Democratic Nominee: Barack Hussein Obama. First, it was Cincinnatti's Conservative Talk Show Host Bill Cunningham's introduction of John McCain that included three uses of the "middle" name. You would have thought he would have called him Dubya or something, because John McCain immediately denounced the comment. In a time when Sen. McCain NEEDS the help of Conservative Talk Show Hosts, it doesn't seem wise to repudiate one in Ohio of all places. Second, the Tennessee GOP gets into it with a press release that ruffled the feathers of not the DNC, but the RNC?!?!

So, we cannot use the middle name because it reminds us of a certain dictator that we removed that in turn has saved countless number of lives of innocent Iraq citizens. Obama, hmmm, sounds too much like the mastermind of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. What do we call this man?

Well, take a deep look at the candidate himself. When asked why they are supporting him, many cannot give you anything beside "change" or "hope." Have them name one substantive thing he has accomplished, and talk about a deer in the headlights look. Just ask Texas State Senator Kirk Watson and his "want to get away" moment on MSNBC!

So, back to the question, what do we call him? Let's go back to M*A*S*H for inspiration...ready for Barack Obama's new name? He is the "Placebo Candidate." Yep, that's right. Sell it long enough, and it works without anything inside because the people MAKE their minds THINK it works. For years, anyone who listened to Rush Limbaugh was labeled a "mind numbed robot" by the left, well now they have their own legion of mind numbed robots. (even though Rush's listeners actually have true self-inspired thoughts in their brains.) Robots who are flocking to someone without substance, but with a ton of style.

When I got questioned, "Why do you like Mike Huckabee?" I could always come back with..."he left Arkansas with a budget surplus of 850 million dollars" or "he's been fighting for th life of the un-born before he entered politics." I had an answer. The Barackobots, nothing. Oh, wait, Hope. Or Change. Style, not substance.

The "Placebo Candidate!" Pla-ce-bo: "a substance having no effect but given merely to satisfy a patient who supposes it to be a medicine." Sounds like the Obama Campaign to me! Folks, we've got a name!

UPDATE: Now he is the Christian Leader? Check out this flier that is being used in Texas by the Placebo Candidate. "My faith teaches me that I can sit in church and pray all I want, but I won't be fulfilling  God's will unless I go out and do the Lord's Work," Barack Obama. Excuse me? Being For Partial Birth Abortion (Voted against the Hyde Amendment) and For Abortion is not doing the "Lord's Work" my friend. What a fake and empty individual. And what does it say about his followers?

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Governor Mike Huckabee Responds to Michelle Obama's Comments

On a campaign stop in Plano, I had the chance to ask Governor Huckabee about the comments made by Michelle Obama regarding not being proud of America in her adult life till recently:

    "Well I am hoping it was just a slip of the tongue, that it was not something she
    sincerely meant. I think she has got to give some clarification to it because I think
    it’d be very troubling to many Americans to think that with all the wonderful
    moments that have happened in this country that there had never been one in her
    life, in forty something years, that made her proud. There are many events in America
    that have made me proud and I think that have made every American proud. And
    whether it’s the fact that we landed on the moon or whether the relief efforts we
    have done everywhere from Darfur to Pakistan after the earthquakes or after the
    Tusnami, there are many many times I have been very very proud of this country.
    And while I think all of us as Americans can find ways to improve it, I just want to
    believe that that’s one of those kind of things with fatigue and that later would be
    said in a different way.“ (click here for audio)

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Imagine this....

Is it ironic that of the four major sports hall of fame's, the Baseball Hall is or will be missing its...

.... all time leading hits leader in Pete Rose
.... all time leading home run hitter in Barry Bonds
.... its second all time leading strike out king in Roger Clemens
.... its third all time leading hitter in batting average in Joe Jackson


weird, but true....

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The Irony: A Vote for Romney was a Vote for McCain

It's funny to me how many times I heard Mitt Romney, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, et all say "A Vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain." Well, the ultimate irony ends up that a vote for Romney is a vote for McCain. Romney, in his endorsement speech today said he wants his delegates to vote for Senator McCain. So...Mitt, a vote for you was a vote for McCain...ironic, isn't it.
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Texas' highest criminal court upholds conviction for murder of unborn twins

With Texas now in focus on the Democrats side, perhaps someone will ask them about this case in their Texas Presidential Debate:

The Texas Court of upheld a second conviction for the homicide of an unborn child under Texas' Prenatal Protection Act.The case, Flores v. Texas (Case No. PD-0265-07), involved the double murder of twin unborn baby boys.

According to court documents, Gerardo Flores stomped on the abdomen of his pregnant girlfriend at 20-21 weeks of gestation and caused the babies to be born dead two days later. Flores was convicted in district court in 2005 on two counts of capital murder and received a life sentence The baby boys were named, given a funeral, and buried with headstones by the mother's family. Gerardo Flores appealed the conviction to the 9th Court of Appeals in Beaumont and finally to the Court of Criminal Appeals. Flores argued that he was merely trying to help his girlfriend abort the children at her request, that he should not be prosecuted for murder, and that the Prenatal Protection Act is unconstitutional. The Court disagreed.

Assistant District Attorney Art Bauereiss, who prosecuted Mr. Flores for the murders in Angelina County, wrote an extensive summary of the case available by clicking here.)

The first case before the Court of Criminal Appeals was in November 2007, when the Court unanimously upheld a conviction for the homicide of an unborn child by a third party against the mother's wishes. The case, Lawrence v. Texas, involved the double murder of a pregnant women and an unborn child. (For a docket detail click here.)

"We are very pleased with the Court's opinion," said Joe Pojman, Ph.D., Executive Director of Texas Alliance for Life (TAL). "The highest criminal court in Texas has again recognized that unborn children are individual persons worthy of protection from murder and assault the same as other persons already born. The Court essentially held that unborn children are babies." Texas Alliance for Life filed a scholarly amicus curiae ("friend-of-the-court") brief in the Court of Criminal Appeals to support the law's constitutionality.

Unborn children in Texas first became protected against crimes of homicide and assault in 2003 when the state legislature passed, and Governor Rick Perry signed in to law, the Prenatal Protection Act. The Court of Criminal Appeals' opinion, the second to address this issue, upheld the constitutionality of the new law. The Texas Legislature passed the Prenatal Protection Act in 2003 (Senate Bill 319), with the strong support of TAL and other pro-life organizations in Texas and over the objections of abortion advocacy organizations including NARAL Pro-Choice Texas, the ACLU, and the Texas Association of Planned Parenthood Affiliates. (Click here for a list of organizations that testified on SB 319.)

Thank GOD!


h/t Texas Alliance for Life

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Irony: A Vote for Romney was a Vote for McCain

For all the talk about a Vote for Huckabee was a Vote for McCain, not tonight. (Based on CNN.com)

8:50PM With 61% reporting:
McCain has 125,934
Huckabee and Romney combined have 125,543 -500

just 500 votes separate the two when you take Romney out, watch and see if the Romney vote would have delivered Virginia to Huckabee. Thompson delivered McCain South Carolina and Romney VA!

ironic, isn't....

9:03PM With 66% reporting:
McCain has 135,195
Huckabee and Romney combined have 137,151 +1,956

9:13PM With 73% reporting:
McCain has 162, 274
Huckabee and Romney combined have 157,012 -5,262

9:23PM With 78% reporting:
McCain has 176,999
Huckabee and Romney combined have 171,479 -5,520

9:33PM With 82% reporting:
McCain has 189,132
Huckabee and Romney combined have 178,893 -10,239

9:53PM With 87% reporting:
McCain has 205,083 50%
Huckabee and Romney combined have 190,244 -14,839

the exit question is, will McCain get over 50%?

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Rasmussen Reports Disengious Action Becomes Part of the Story

When I went to Rasmussen Reports website to check the tracking poll, I found the following statement: “Yesterday, Rasmussen Reports received hundreds of phone calls and countless e-mails from Huckabee supporters indicating their disappointment with our decision. Many implied that we were being disrespectful to Huckabee and his supporters. That is not the case. We recognize that Governor Huckabee has run and is running a campaign that resonates with a large and important segment of the Republican constituency. He has greatly exceeded expectations because of his ability to reach out to this portion of the conservative coalition.”

Interesting, considering the words of Senator John McCain stating “I don't want to in any way sidestep the candidacy of Governor Huckabee," adding "He's in this race, and for me to dismiss him would be inappropriate and unrealistic."

Rasmussen Reports has now become part of the story with this disingenuous and unwarranted decision. It moves me to the old phrase, "if you tell a lie long enough, it becomes the truth." If Governor Huckabee had simply won one state, Iowa, and had a poor showing on Super Tuesday...then this would be a move unworthy of criticism. However, when you see his speech (ironically enough, not getting play on any major website) you will the overwhelming positive reaction the Governor received.

Is the Governor's chances an uphill battle, yes. However, in this election cycle that has yet to follow any trend, anything is possible. Rasmussen is now saying dreams are not possible, that they are purveyor of all in this election. Regardless of who you support, you should support fairness and send a note to info@rasmussenreports and let them know you are shocked by they're becoming part of the story instead of doing their job of reporting the numbers.    

UPDATE: Received the following email from Rasmussen Reports:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Other Emails [mailto:other.emails@rasmussenreports.com]
Sent: Sunday, February 10, 2008 11:19 AM
Subject: [SPAM] re: Why is Rasmussen Disrespecting Governor Mike Huckabee

Thank you for taking the time to write. Following Governor Huckabee's strong showing in the Saturday primary and caucuses, Rasmussen Reports has resumed daily tracking of the Republican Presidential Race for the time being. However, Rasmussen Markets data continues to show Senator McCain with a 95% chance of winning the Republican Presidential Nomination.
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Romney is Out, What Happens Next?

We're down to the final four, Hillary and Barack on the Democrat's side and McCain and Huckabee on the Republican side. What happens next?

At this point, for Huckabee, it's not about delegates...it's about becoming the Vice President. Romney was gracious and spirited in his, for all practical purposes, concession speech at CPAC. This will garner a lot of support for him to be the VP...and this is why Huckabee stays in. The key to look for is, how does McCain react and does he now turn against Huckabee.

Coming up on the Republican this Saturday is the Washington, Kansas, Virginia, and Louisiana.  Virginia is going to go to McCain because of the strong military presence and Washington is much more on the left than right. It's a theoretical possibility that Huckabee takes Louisiana and Kansas. At this point, again it's not about delegates when it comes to Huckabee...it's the race to become the VP. It's about what percentage of the vote he gets in these four states and the reaction he gets Sunday.

And what will conservative talk radio do? The two candidates they don't like are the two remaining candidates, do they say McCain is the lesser of two evils or Huckabee? This will be a key piece of the puzzle next week.  Chip Saltsman was on FOX News post-Romney exit and he said they were still in it. Then again, Romney said the same thing Tuesday.

After that, there are two states likely to favor McCain in Maryland this coming Tuesday and Wisconsin a week later. Then there is a brief break before Ohio and Texas. This will be time all negotiations will start to take place. Huckabee can win Texas, but cannot win the nomination. Will Huckabee throw his support for McCain in Texas and use the convention as a way to "unify" behind the Maverick?
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With 3, It's a Brokered Convention

Welcome to the science of Politics! After Tuesday night, the race is clearly in the hands of John McCain, but there are more jokers than aces. Looking at the upcoming primaries, a brokered convention looks more and more likely.

Here are the states likely to go to McCain and their delegates:
OH...McCain (35), Romney (31), Huckabee (22)
PA...McCain (36), Romney (32), Huckabee (7)
NC...McCain (27), Huckabee (22), Romney (20)
WA...McCain (21), Romney (14), Huckabee (6)
MD...McCain (17), Romney (14), Huckabee (7)
NM...McCain (14), Romney (10), Huckabee (8)
OR...McCain (17), Romney (11), Huckabee (3)
KS...McCain (15), Huckabee (11), Romney (13)
VA is winner take all, with a heavy military presence, give their 63 votes to McCain. I also throw in Vermont and their 17 delegates.

Here are the states likely to go to Romney and their delegates:
WI...Romney (18), McCain (15), Huckabee (7)
ID...Romney (18), McCain (8), Huckabee (6)
RI...Romney (10), McCain (8), Huckabee (1)
SD...Romney (12), McCain (9), Huckabee (6)

Here are the states likely to go to Huckabee and their delegates:
TX...Huckabee (53), McCain (48), Romney (39)
IN...Huckabee (22), McCain (20), Romney (15)
LA...Huckabee (19), McCain (16), Romney (12)
KY...Huckabee (17), McCain (16), Romney (12)
MS...Huckabee (517), McCain (15), Romney (7)
NE...Huckabee (13), McCain (11), Romney (9)

What does that get you?
McCain needs 494 but only gets 438, minus56.  Romney needs 947 and winds up getting 301, leaving him 646 short. Huckabee needs 1004, gains 251 leaving him 753 short. Add Romney and Huckabee's delegates and they would still be 209 short. In the end, folks, the chance of a brokered convention is looming large. Imagine what the conventions will be like when, on both sides, they could determine the actual nominee. What a lesson in American Democracy and a true tribute the wisdom of our forefathers!

Then again, trying to figure anything out using the past as an example is destined to be a failure in 2008, so take it for what it's worth.



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Post Super Tuesday

It's just about over and it's been a very interesting night. At the end of the night, the wins brokeout this way:

McCain: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Missouri, Illinois, Oklahoma, Arizona, and California.
Romney: Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Utah, Montana, and Colorado.
Huckabee: West Virginia, Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee.

Biggest Winners are Mike Huckabee and John McCain. With Mike Huckabee, he made a case for being in the race and finally won some states oustside of Iowa. Another reason he wins, when you scan FOX, CNN, MSNBC; all three networks spoke of how he rose from the ashes tonight. The drum beat from the conservative talk show hosts has been "A vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain." Not so, admitted Laura Ingraham on FOX News when she rightly said "Huckabee is taking votes away from McCain and not Romney" while minutes later Karl Rove agreed. Megyn Kelly says "clearly Mike Huckabee had a great night."  John McCain has to be counted as a winner as well, how else can you describe it when he won the majority of the states and delegates. He is now the clear front runner, especially when the pundits say Huckabee has no chance at the nomination. Huckabee has continually been counted out this entire election cycle by a very powerful group, to no avail. Regardless of how he does, he is written off. McCain's victory speech was, perhaps, the first official reach out to the other two campaigns and Townhall.com's Matt Lewis makes a great case that his CPAC speech will be as important to him as the College Station Religion speech was to Romney.

Biggest Loser clearly is Mitt Romney. Sean Hannity said all day long that McCain and Huckabee colluded together to deny Mitt Romney any momentum with the West Virginia vote, but an argument can also be made that the conservative talk radio team has colluded with the Romney campaign to try and convince voters to move their vote to Romney. My take is, neither is colusion, it's just politics. A secondary argument could be made that Romney is hurting Huckabee more than Huckabee is hurting Romney. Should the calls begin to ask Romney to leave the race and support Huckabee? He can still, however, make the argument he has more voters and more delegates supporting him than Huckabee. That should be enough for Romney to stay, except he now is losing the battle of expectations when Bill Kristol and Howard Fineman are saying it's time to leave the race. Good spin from the Romney campaign, though, when they say "On the issue of electability, this is a two-man race. Huckabee has a certain inability to bring together fiscal and national security conservatives.” Hmmm, the voters in the south don't feel this way. More arrogance from a campaign and candidate that leads in that category.

Consider a Romney/Huckabee pairing? The cry from the majority of conservative talk radio hosts has been, as said earlier, a vote for Huckabee is a vote for Romney. I think the more that you look at it, Huckabee is actually hurting McCain more. The question that these hosts must ask themselves now is, who do they dislike more, McCain or Huckabee? Mark Steyn gives us a hint with this: "Over on the GOP side, it was a choice between Weak & Divisive or Weaker & Unacceptable. Doesn't bode well for November."  Who do they think will do more damage? Now would be a perfect time for the Romney and Huckabee camps to talk about a "corporate merger." Imagine what would happen to this race if these two put aside their differences and joined together. Put together these two campaigns and look out.

Winner Take All vs. Proportional Delegates. Early indications are that McCain will get roughly 554 delegates, Mitt Romney 259, and Mike Huckabee 155. However, make every state a winner take all and the delegate count looks very much different with McCain picking up 423 (-131) with Mitt Romney (-42) and Mike Huckabee (+62) both coming in at 217. Huckabee would clearly have benefitted from a full slate of winner take all states.  Great strategy move by McCain to take 6 WTA, Romney 2, and 1 for Huckabee.  Imagine the race with all states being WTA.

Second look at the numbers. John McCain received 48.5% in the states he won. Mitt Romney is skewed by Utah, which he received nearly 90% of the vote...take that away and that number falls to a more realistic 50%. The problem with Huckabee is, he didn't come close to reaching a clear majority, spliting the vote in each state he won with nearly a third going to each candidate.

The Romney Surge didn't materalize after all. Let the whining begin. Mark Steyn writes "the heartland spoke last night and about the only message it sent was that, no matter what the talk radio guys say, they're not voting for a Mormon no way no how." What simple minded ridiculous talk is this, that the southern states are a bunch of bigots. You knew that it was only a matter of time before the "it's anti-mormon bigotry" card would come out, give Steyn credit for being the one to get in the bigot bandwagon first. It's par for the course for those in the Romney campaign and their surrogates.

At the end of the night, what happens next? No one leaves the race, Romney is already spinning the future primaries setting up well for them. Then again, that was the same spin they layed down after Florida. Huckabee reafirmed he is a force in the south, but still his inablilty to do anything more than get the most votes and not a majority of votes in his wins is a bad barometer. McCain just racks up votes and delegates. It's like Groundhog day, the voters looked at their shadow and we' get six more weeks of campaigns.
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Super Tuesday LIVE

East coast states:
- New York*:  PREDICTION McCAIN
- CALLED FOR McCAIN 101 DELEGATES
- New Jersey*: PREDICTION McCAIN - CALLED FOR McCAIN 52 DELEGATES
- Delaware*: PREDICTION ROMNEY
- CALLED FOR McCAIN 18 DELEGATES
- Connecticut*: PREDICTION McCAIN
- CALLED FOR McCAIN 30 DELEGATES
- Georgia : PREDICTION McCAIN
- CALLED FOR HUCKABEE
- Alabama: PREDICTION HUCKABEE - CALLED FOR HUCKABEE
- Massachusetts: PREDICTION ROMNEY - CALLED FOR ROMNEY
- West Virginia: PREDICTION ROMNEY - GOES TO HUCKABEE 18 DELEGATES

Central states:
- Missouri*: PREDICTION McCAIN
- TOO CLOSE TO CALL HUCKABEE LEADING
- Arkansas*: PREDICTION HUCKABEE - CALLED FOR HUCKABEE 34 DELEGATES
- Illinois: PREDICTION McCAIN -
CALLED FOR McCAIN 30 DELEGATES
- Tennessee: PREDICTION HUCKABEE
- CALLED FOR HUCKABEE
- Minnesota: PREDICTION McCAIN
- TOO CLOSE TO CALL HUCKABEE & ROMNEY TIED
- Oklahoma: PREDICTION McCAIN -
CALLED FOR McCAIN
- North Dakota: PREDICTION McCAIN
- CALLED FOR ROMNEY

Mountain states:
- Arizona: PREDICTION McCAIN -
CALLED FOR McCAIN 53 DELEGATES
- Utah: PREDICTION ROMNEY
- CALLED FOR ROMNEY 36 DELEGATES
- Montana: PREDICTION ROMNEY - TOO CLOSE TO CALL McCAIN LEADING
- Colorado: PREDICTION ROMNEY

Western states:
- California: PREDICTION ROMNEY
- Alaska: PREDICTION McCAIN
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Super Tuesday is Here, What To Expect

2:24 PM UPDATE: HUCKABEE WINS WEST VIRGINIA. BAD SIGN FOR ROMNEY.

5:47 PM UPDATE: Jim Geraghty reports early numbers...  Missouri is simply too close to call, but if it Goes for Romney, that's a 100 point swing in essence. The South looks good for Huckabee: Georgia is also too close to call, but Huckabee wins there, that's a huge boost.  Oklahoma is the same way. Big Leads in Alabama and Tennessee.

WE'RE HERE! It's Super Tuesday and here's a look at how things could shake out...

8:00PM Eastern - Polls will close in eight states:
- New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and Connecticut are all winner take all states and John McCain leads four and should get a quick 183 delegates and 18 for Romney (Delaware).
- Georgia, Alabama, Massachusetts, and West Virginia are all proportional states so the big three will all get delegates. 
- Massachusetts should be a quick call for Romney and expect him to pick up 28 delegates, 10 for McCain, and 5 for Huckabee.
- Georgia is a too close to call state with McCain and Romney the top two, so expect the delegate count to go McCain to get 27, Romney 25, and 20.
- Alabama is also a close state, with McCain and Huckabee...so I predict McCain with 20, Huckabee 17, Romney 10.
- West Virginia...Mary Katherine Ham explains here.

Running Total:...McCain with 240...Romney with 81...Huckabee 42

8:00PM Eastern - Polls close in seven states:
- Missouri and Arkansas are winner take all states and expect McCain to take the Show Me State and its 58 delegates while Hucakbee wins his home state and its 34 delegates.
- Illinois is the next biggest prize and McCain is leading by 16 points...give McCain 30, Romney 20, Huckabee 15.
- Tennessee is going to have very rough weather in the western part of the state, with it a close race between McCain and Huckabee. Give Huckabee 22, McCain 20, and Romney 13.
- Minnesota has only had one poll, with McCain with a large lead in a state an Independent Wrestler used to govern... McCain with 21, Huckabee with 12, and Romney 8.
- Oklahoma is next door to Huckabee so it will be close, give McCain 18, Huckabee 15, and Romney 8.
- North Dakota, like West Virginia, is unknown, so give McCain 10, Romney 9, and Huckabee 7.

Running Total:...McCain with 405...Romney with 139...Huckabee 147

9:00PM Eastern - Polls close in three states:
- Arizona, Utah, and Montana are all winner take all states...with McCain getting the 53 from Arizona and Romney getting 61 from Utah and Montana.
- Colorado goes for Mitt, give him 23, McCain 13, Huckabee 10
    
Running Total:...McCain with 463...Romney with 223...Huckabee 157

11:00PM Eastern- Polls close in California
- California distributes delegates by Congressional district, so it could be a long night and polls have been changing rapidly. It looks like a tie. I predict Romney grabs 72, McCain 68 and Huckabee 33.

Throw in Alaska... 12 for McCain, 10 for Romney, 7 for Huckabee

FINAL TALLY FROM SUPER TUESDAY: McCAIN - 543 , ROMNEY - 293, HUCKABEE - 188

POST SUPER TUESDAY: McCAIN - 638, ROMNEY 370, HUCKABEE 228
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Florida’s New Theme: The Sunset State?

After Tuesday night, the sun has now set on Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee. While Rudy will get out tomorrow, Mike Huckabee will stay in one more week to grab a few more delegates for the convention this fall.

 

I’ve been a Huck guy since there were no Huck guys. Not many people get the unique opportunity to sit down to a private dinner with someone running for President of the United States. Granted, he was in the same no-chance category as Dennis Kucinich, but he was running. For someone who is clearly not a “big shot,” it was a thrill. Well, the thrill is fading faster than his bank account.  

 

What do we have left to choose from? John McCain and Mitt Romney. That brings me to a question I’ve posed to conservative friends of mine for a few years now: Terminology or Ideology?

 

What does that mean? Simply, is it good to have RINO’s around? The question stemmed from seeing how disappointed we were in the likes of Olympia Snowe, Arlen Specter, and John McCain. While the terminology was an “R,” the ideology was an “L.” They were simply Republicans in Name Only. However, those RINO’s  kept Republicans in the Majority in the Senate and so we justified it. However, when you lose the Senate, stomaching RINO’s become much more difficult.

 

For weeks, talk radio (minus Michael Medved) has had two men in their sites: Mike Huckabee and John McCain. While it was difficult for me to agree with the first, you got no argument out of me on the second. Huck, who has more and more lost me, doesn’t have a chance but now John McCain is the clear front runner and Michael Medved may be right in declaring talk radio is the loser during these GOP Primaries.

 

Going into Florida, the drumbeat has been there is no way conservatives vote for John McCain in the first real closed primary. As Dr. Phil would say, how’s that working for ya? Apparently, not very well.

 

So, like the democrats, we’ve got a two-and-a-half man race. McCain and Hillary are the insiders, Romney and Obama are the outsiders. McCain and Hillary both have a substantial amount of consternation amongst the base of their party. Romney and Obama are the fresh faces who were all but unknown a year ago. John Edwards and Mike Huckabee, both southerners, have the populist message and are vying to either be VP or part of a future administration…or bringing delegates to their convention so they have a significant voice this fall.

 

So, now, it’s time for Super Tuesday. What states does McCain win? What states does Romney win? Will there be a clear winner as a result? Probably not. Next up are two really big prizes: Texas and Ohio. Republicans cannot win the White House without winning both. McCain and Romney will have to come to the Lone Star State and make their case. So what wins, Terminology or Ideology?  In a battle of the lesser of two evils, I’ll choose Mitt Romney. Not a ringing endorsement, but the bell is tolling.

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