Posted by
Dwayne Horner on Wednesday, February 06, 2008 7:23:43 PM
Welcome to the science of Politics! After Tuesday night, the race is clearly in the hands of John McCain, but there are more jokers than aces. Looking at the upcoming primaries, a brokered convention looks more and more likely.
Here are the states likely to go to McCain and their delegates:
OH...McCain (35), Romney (31), Huckabee (22)
PA...McCain (36), Romney (32), Huckabee (7)
NC...McCain (27), Huckabee (22), Romney (20)
WA...McCain (21), Romney (14), Huckabee (6)
MD...McCain (17), Romney (14), Huckabee (7)
NM...McCain (14), Romney (10), Huckabee (8)
OR...McCain (17), Romney (11), Huckabee (3)
KS...McCain (15), Huckabee (11), Romney (13)
VA is winner take all, with a heavy military presence, give their 63 votes to McCain. I also throw in Vermont and their 17 delegates.
Here are the states likely to go to Romney and their delegates:
WI...Romney (18), McCain (15), Huckabee (7)
ID...Romney (18), McCain (8), Huckabee (6)
RI...Romney (10), McCain (8), Huckabee (1)
SD...Romney (12), McCain (9), Huckabee (6)
Here are the states likely to go to Huckabee and their delegates:
TX...Huckabee (53), McCain (48), Romney (39)
IN...Huckabee (22), McCain (20), Romney (15)
LA...Huckabee (19), McCain (16), Romney (12)
KY...Huckabee (17), McCain (16), Romney (12)
MS...Huckabee (517), McCain (15), Romney (7)
NE...Huckabee (13), McCain (11), Romney (9)
What does that get you?
McCain needs 494 but only gets 438, minus56. Romney needs 947 and winds up getting 301, leaving him 646 short. Huckabee needs 1004, gains 251 leaving him 753 short. Add Romney and Huckabee's delegates and they would still be 209 short. In the end, folks, the chance of a brokered convention is looming large. Imagine what the conventions will be like when, on both sides, they could determine the actual nominee. What a lesson in American Democracy and a true tribute the wisdom of our forefathers!
Then again, trying to figure anything out using the past as an example is destined to be a failure in 2008, so take it for what it's worth.