Posted by
Dwayne Horner on Tuesday, February 05, 2008 12:23:39 PM
2:24 PM UPDATE: HUCKABEE WINS WEST VIRGINIA. BAD SIGN FOR ROMNEY.
5:47 PM UPDATE: Jim Geraghty reports early numbers... Missouri is simply too close to call, but if it Goes for Romney, that's a 100 point swing in essence. The South looks good for Huckabee: Georgia is also too close to call, but Huckabee wins there, that's a huge boost. Oklahoma is the same way. Big Leads in Alabama and Tennessee.
WE'RE HERE! It's Super Tuesday and here's a look at how things could shake out...
8:00PM Eastern - Polls will close in eight states:
- New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and Connecticut are all winner take all states and John McCain leads four and should get a quick 183 delegates and 18 for Romney (Delaware).
- Georgia, Alabama, Massachusetts, and West Virginia are all proportional states so the big three will all get delegates.
- Massachusetts should be a quick call for Romney and expect him to pick up 28 delegates, 10 for McCain, and 5 for Huckabee.
- Georgia is a too close to call state with McCain and Romney the top two, so expect the delegate count to go McCain to get 27, Romney 25, and 20.
- Alabama is also a close state, with McCain and Huckabee...so I predict McCain with 20, Huckabee 17, Romney 10.
- West Virginia...
Mary Katherine Ham explains here.
Running Total:...
McCain with 240...Romney with 81...Huckabee 428:00PM Eastern - Polls close in seven states:
- Missouri and Arkansas are winner take all states and expect McCain to take the Show Me State and its 58 delegates while Hucakbee wins his home state and its 34 delegates.
- Illinois is the next biggest prize and McCain is leading by 16 points...give McCain 30, Romney 20, Huckabee 15.
- Tennessee is going to have very rough weather in the western part of the state, with it a close race between McCain and Huckabee. Give Huckabee 22, McCain 20, and Romney 13.
- Minnesota has only had one poll, with McCain with a large lead in a state an Independent Wrestler used to govern... McCain with 21, Huckabee with 12, and Romney 8.
- Oklahoma is next door to Huckabee so it will be close, give McCain 18, Huckabee 15, and Romney 8.
- North Dakota, like West Virginia, is unknown, so give McCain 10, Romney 9, and Huckabee 7.
Running Total:...
McCain with 405...Romney with 139...Huckabee 147
9:00PM Eastern - Polls close in three states:
- Arizona, Utah, and Montana are all winner take all states...with McCain getting the 53 from Arizona and Romney getting 61 from Utah and Montana.
- Colorado goes for Mitt, give him 23, McCain 13, Huckabee 10
Running Total:...
McCain with 463...Romney with 223...Huckabee 157
11:00PM Eastern- Polls close in California
- California distributes delegates by Congressional district, so it could be a long night and polls have been changing rapidly. It looks like a tie. I predict Romney grabs 72, McCain 68 and Huckabee 33.
Throw in Alaska... 12 for McCain, 10 for Romney, 7 for Huckabee
FINAL TALLY FROM SUPER TUESDAY: McCAIN - 543 , ROMNEY - 293, HUCKABEE - 188
POST SUPER TUESDAY: McCAIN - 638, ROMNEY 370, HUCKABEE 228