Posted by
Dwayne Horner on Tuesday, January 29, 2008 11:03:27 PM
Call me crazy, but I was just curious to see how much the other candidates are either helping or hurting Romney and McCain...especially since it looks like the field has narrowed to these two:
How I came about the numbers....
I took the other candidates (besides Paul) and gave their votes in same percentage as the second choice they identified in exit polls either to Romney or McCain. For Thompson, since there was a significant amount to Huckabee and Giuliani, I further took those and gave them to McCain and Romney in the same percentages as second choice above.
Starting Out (done with 76% of the vote in): McCain: 614,938 & Romney: 530,513.
Giuliani... take the exit polls and 44% said McCain was their 2nd choice and 49% sayiing Romeny. So, add 111232 to McCain and 123872 to Romney.
Huckabee... same thing, his second choice broke 54% McCain and 32% Romney. McCain gets 123239 and Romney 73030.
Thompson... his breaks a little different, he had significant numbers go to Huckabee and Giuliani, so I did his in two rounds. First, just the straight 2nd pick votes went 46% Romney and 21% McCain (So much for a McCain Endorsement, by the way) so McCain adds 4245 votes and Romney adds 9298. Round Two would be giving the 2nd choice Huck and Rudy votes out...in the same percentages above, giving McCain +2846 and Romney +3170.
Add that all up and you get: McCain 53.6% (an additional 241562 votes) and Romney 46.3% (an additional 209371 votes).
Conclusion is all the other candidates are taking more votes from McCain than Romney. Just an interesting look at the numbers. Romney is not going to gain any momentum from this race being a two-man battle. With all that has taken place so far, both the Democrats and Republicans race mirror each other: two candidates left with a third jockeying for a position in the winner's administration if the candidate who wins is "the perceived outsider." Funny how things have worked out....when everything has been so crazy.