Posted by
Dwayne Horner on Tuesday, January 22, 2008 6:34:51 PM
Fred is Dead, perhaps not?
Official word came from Fred Thompson today that he is leaving the race:
“Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people.”
The next obvious question is, where do the loyal Fred Heads go from here, especially in Florida?
John McCain...Even though Fred might end up endorsing his former Senate Colleague, it is unlikely those who support him would follow his lead. When you check the stories in the blogosphere about a potential McCain/Thompson ticket, there just isn't much a stomach for that. Fred's exit,
actually, hurts McCain. Remember, McCain was already in the race when Thompson got in. How would that make you feel if someone who endorsed you eight years ago battles against during this rodeo?
Rudy Giuliani...Even less likely, there isn't that much of an agreement in the core principles between Rudy and Fred.
...that leaves Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. It is widely known that Fred Thompson hurt
Mike Huckabee in South Carolina and had he dropped out earlier, Huckabee would have won the Palmetto state. Finishing second has been devastating to Huckabee, because Thompson took evangelicals from a campaign whose strategy appears to revolve around them.
Mitt Romney made a calculated effort to go after the "value voters," trying to be the true social conservative early in the race...and failed. In Michigan, he re-invented his campaign to focus on Economics and he won and kept his campaign from falling to the same fate as Fred.
So, what happens...consider this, perhaps they don't go anywhere! Think about it for a second, just because he has exited the race does not mean Fred Dalton Thompson is no longer on the ballot. Fred Heads are a very devoted group and began the "unofficial" campaign LONG before the "unofficial" campaign started with Fred's official announcement on The Tonight Show.
Consider this, Fred is now in his perfect spot...campaigning without having to campaign. He no longer has to the mundane tasks of going to events, making speeches, seemingly wanting the job. The Fred Heads carried the water and waged a campaign vastly more passionate than the candidate himself, what makes them have to stop now?
In an election where the GOP electorate is being even more fickle then ever, with no one filling the vacuum, this is the perfect primary season for such a scenario to take place.
Is Fred Dead, not if the Fred Heads have anything to say about it...
Update: Steven Stark
picks this up but more on the historical sense and the chance there still may not be a clear front runner after Super Tuesday.