Three Elections, Three Different Winners. Talk about lack of momentum from a win. Yes, I know, Mitt won in Wyoming but that’s like saying he pulled out Guam, be honest.

There has been a lot of talk about the “three legged or four legged stool” of the Ronald Reagan Coalition, is it dead?. Leg one, the social conservatives. Leg two, the national security/defense conservatives. Leg three, the fiscal conservatives. Leg four, perhaps, the Reagan Democrats.

Iowa showed us the importance of the “social conservatives” with the surprising win by Mike Huckabee with the help of strong evangelical vote. Moving east to New Hampshire, John McCain pulls out a victory largely because of his record of being a War Hero from Vietnam and his national security experience. Now, we have the fiscal conservatives rewarding Mitt Romney in Michigan.

A case can also be made for identity politics in all three states, with Huckabee campaigning extensively in Iowa…McCain success in New Hampshire from eight years ago…and of course, Romney’s father was Governor of Michigan and he grew up there.

I sat down with Reagan’s former White House Director of Media Relations, Merrie Spaeth, to talk about just what is a Reagan Conservative and what made him so special to America. “There are a couple of things about Reagan,” said Merrie, “he had tremendous charisma, he wasn’t arrogant. He never exuded that he came from privilege. You always felt that he was just somebody glad to be an American.”

The Reagan Coalition is not dead, it’s just fractured into many different candidates. Imagine being in a GOP laboratory and working to craft the perfect Reagan Candidate…work with me here on this one. “A Reagan Conservative,” according to Merrie “is someone with strong values on fiscal conservatism, strong national defense, strong social values but who understands that those three things fit together.

So let’s build that Reagan Conservative…starting with the social conservative. Governor Mike Huckabee is, with all due respect to Senator Thompson, the leading social conservative in the race. With a background of being a Baptist Minister, he has been solidly pro-life and pro-family. Senator Brownback tried to battle for the social-con vote, but couldn’t make it to the Iowa Caucus.

The national security candidates, that would be Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. Rudy has a tremendous record when it comes to fighting crime and being strong on national security. John McCain, who survived the Hanoi Hilton, is someone to be admired for his stance on the surge in Iraq…but both aren’t considered to be strong on the other “legs” of the stool.

The final piece, strong fiscal conservatism belongs squarely in the Romney camp. With a track record of building companies and rescuing the Olympics, Mitt Romney was not credibility gap when talking economics in Michigan. His credibility problem is with his change from pro-choice to pro-life and trying to better Ted Kennedy when it came to gay rights.

While not tied to the “three legs,” some interesting things came about in the interview with Merrie Spaeth. “I think President Reagan was a populist candidate, the establishment candidate of course would have been [President] Ford, Reagan was certainly not a Washington Insider by anybody’s [definition] he was also was not a professional politician. Establishment candidates I guess should say are almost always professional politicians, I cannot think of any that aren’t. Even though he had been Governor of California, he was one of those politicians that I like to say could have held a real job on his own.” Sounds a lot like what Governor Huckabee and Romney are saying about their slot in the race.

“Reagan Democrat is a working class person and I think we have a good chance of capturing those people,” added Spaeth. “I think that’s very important is that we remember that we, Republicans, are working class people. There’s a lot that has happened between ’80 and 2008, the off shoring trends are terribly freighting to many people and I don’t think the Republicans have done a very good job not just communicating the need for change and competitiveness but really selling it. So that’s a difference between 1980 and 2008 and to sell to working America that we’ve got to be competitive and we can be competitive … when jobs move off shore, it’s really tough for whose jobs are affective but for America to stay the most competitive power in the world it’s important that we adapt and change.” Again, sounds familiar to the tone of the Huckabee campaign.

“What Reagan was above e all things was very optimistic and I think if Republicans are optimistic and appeal to opportunity that differentias us significantly from the Democrats who think everything is bad, everybody is bad, everything is going wrong. All you have to do is look at John Edwards and his corporate greed strategy, how a multimillion dollar trial lawyer can say that with a trial face is beyond me. But I look at the CEOs of the companies we work with and for and those people are devoted to creating job, they are devoted to good working conditions for the people who work for them, they are involved in their communities. The corporate leadership that I see and work with are the genuine good guys.” Not so good for Huckabee, perhaps why you heard him on FOX News tonight talking about the CEO’s in Arkansas promoting him as a true conservative Governor.

“Reagan was also a very pragmatic governor that is he actually got things done he was someone who could actually governor as \opposed to posture. Which is why, and I am not aiming this at Senator McCain, but why I think Senators have a really really hard time getting elected because they spend years posturing. I think keeping Reagan’s accomplishments alive, I don’t’ think we should make him into a Myth and he certainly had some shortcomings, everybody does, remembering what he stood for and those are very worth goals,” says Spaeth…not so good for McCain.

So, take some of Mike Huckabee…Rudy Giuliani…John McCain…and Mitt Romney, and you have the Prefect Reagan. Problem is, you can’t put them together to form one candidate. Many where hoping Fred Thompson would be that “perfect” candidate for the GOP after its star, George Allen, lost in ’06. Fred simply hasn’t inspired the masses and has one final chance in South Carolina.
So, the social conservatives won in Iowa. The National Security conservatives won in New Hampshire. The Fiscal Conservatives won in Michigan.

Leaving Michigan, there are some interesting things to ponder. Both Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson both have fewer votes than Ron Paul. Why is this important? The Giuliani strategy has been to avoid the first states and start the ball rolling in the Sunshine State. Ironically enough, this same strategy may work out for Fred Thompson…who might not have been hurt too much for getting into the race late. Work with me here, for a moment. Fred has done nothing early, except maybe his showing in Iowa. He did campaign there, at the end, and it allowed him to finish barely ahead of McCain. If he can beat Mike Huckabee in South Carolina, get some momentum to Florida where everyone is tied, he could become the new GOP front runner…in a field where that label has much of a target on its back as the #2 team in the country did in college football. So, perhaps Rudy lined up the putt for Fred and it carries the man from Tennessee to Minneapolis this fall.

Back to the three principles of the Reagan Coalition and South Carolina, which falls into the Social Conservative category. This one should be a battle between Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. It could have been huge for McCain, had he won in Michigan, but the “big mo” is nowhere to be found this campaign season. Huck has to be hoping a win in South Carolina gives him that elusive “mo,” we’ll see.

Then it’s Super Tuesday…and all bets are off. That’s going to be one heck of an Election Night watch party. What happens on that night could shape the future of the GOP race or send us roaring down the road to a brokered convention…or make the Lone Star State the GOP Alamo.